Fig 3. Expert prior opinion before introduction of the MYCYC data regarding 6-month remission rates using treatment with CYC or MMF for children with PAN.
Reprinted from [7] under a CC BY license, with permission from the authors, original copyright 2014. Prior opinion was that the most likely value for pC was 0.7; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.30, 0.91) and (0.50, 0.78), respectively. The effective sample size was 5 patients on CYC. The prior for pM is derived from those for pC and θ. It had mode = 0.65; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.21, 0.90) and (0.41, 0.74), respectively.