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. 2015 Mar 30;10(3):e0120981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120981

Fig 4. Influence of the MYCYC trial results on expert prior opinion regarding 6-month remission rates using treatment with CYC or MMF for children with PAN. Reprinted from [7] under a CC BY license, with permission from the authors, original copyright 2014.

Fig 4

Fig 4A): Influence of MYCYC results on prior opinion for pC. The modified prior distribution for pC after considering the MYCYC results had mode = 0.74; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.51, 0.86) and (0.63, 0.78), respectively. This level of certainty is equivalent to what would be obtained from a clinical trial involving 17 patients treated with CYC (effective sample size). Fig 4B): Influence of MYCYC results on prior opinion for pM. The modified prior for pM after considering the MYCYC results had mode = 0.71; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.45, 0.85) and (0.59, 0.76), respectively. Fig 4C): Comparison of the final expert prior opinions for pC and pM incorporating the MYCYC data.