Table 1. Approximate numbers of incident cases of some exemplar conditions expected to accrue during the first 20 years of follow-up in UK Biobank.
| Condition | 2012 | 2017 | 2022 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes mellitus | 10,000 | 25,000 | 40,000 | 68,000 |
| MI and coronary death | 7,000 | 17,000 | 28,000 | 47,000 |
| Stroke | 2,000 | 5,000 | 9,000 | 20,000 |
| COPD | 3,000 | 8,000 | 14,000 | 25,000 |
| Breast cancer (female) | 2,500 | 6,000 | 10,000 | 16,000 |
| Colorectal cancer | 1,500 | 3,500 | 7,000 | 14,000 |
| Prostate cancer | 1,500 | 3,500 | 7,000 | 14,000 |
| Lung cancer | 800 | 2,000 | 4,000 | 8,000 |
| Hip fracture | 800 | 2,500 | 6,000 | 17,000 |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 800 | 2,000 | 3,000 | 5,000 |
| Alzheimer’s disease | 800 | 3,000 | 9,000 | 30,000 |
| Parkinson’s disease | 1000 | 3,000 | 6,000 | 14,000 |
Based on UK age- and sex-specific rates with adjustment for healthy cohort effects and losses to follow-up [6].
MI: myocardial infarction; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or chronic bronchitis/emphysema