Table 2.
Screening and prostate cancer (PC) mortality outcomes in the projected population (N=10,000) under different screening strategies. Lives saved are relative to no screening. Unnecessary biopsies are the sum of false positive tests and overdiagnoses.
| Strategy | True Positive Tests | False Positive Tests | Overdiagnoses | Unnecessary Biopsies | PC Deaths | Lives Saved | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSA(4)+PCA3(0) | 1217 | 6912 | 385 | 7297 | 180 | 173 |
| 2 | PSA(4)+PCA3(20) | 920 | 3159 | 291 | 3450 | 222 | 131 |
| 3 | PSA(4)+PCA3(25) | 858 | 2599 | 272 | 2871 | 231 | 122 |
| 4 | PSA(4)+PCA3(30) | 801 | 2132 | 254 | 2386 | 240 | 113 |
| 5 | PSA(4)+PCA3(35) | 747 | 1751 | 237 | 1988 | 247 | 106 |
| 6 | PSA(4)+PCA3(40) | 697 | 1441 | 221 | 1662 | 254 | 99 |
| 7 | PSA(4,10)+PCA3(20,0) | 1101 | 4220 | 327 | 4547 | 194 | 159 |
| 8 | PSA(4,10)+PCA3(25,0) | 1076 | 3818 | 315 | 4133 | 198 | 155 |
| 9 | PSA(4,10)+PCA3(30,0) | 1054 | 3481 | 304 | 3785 | 200 | 153 |
| 10 | PSA(4,10)+PCA3(35,0) | 1032 | 3206 | 294 | 3500 | 203 | 150 |
| 11 | PSA(4,10)+PCA3(40,0) | 1013 | 2982 | 284 | 3266 | 206 | 146 |
| 12 | No Screening | 353 |
*
Nomenclature for strategies: In strategies 1-6, numbers in parentheses indicate thresholds for testing positive, e.g. PSA(4)+PCA3(0) indicates that PSA>4.0 and PCA3>0 yields a positive test. In strategies 7-11, commas separate threshold pairs used in an “or” combination, e.g. PSA(4,10)+PCA3(20,0) indicates that PSA>4 and PCA3>20 or PSA>10 and PCA3>0 yields a positive test. See Materials & Methods for more details.