Table 1.
Annualised parameter estimates used in Markov model
| Parameter | Annual Probabilities | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Care | Commercial Program | ||
| Probability of developing diabetes for normal health state | 0.004 (0.002) | 0.004 (0.002) | AusDiab Report 2005 12 |
| Probability of developing diabetes for overweight health state | 0.008 (0.003) | 0.008 (0.003) | AusDiab Report 2005 12 |
| Probability of developing diabetes for obese health state | 0.016 (0.004) | 0.016 (0.004) | AusDiab Report 2005 12 |
| Mortality rate for those with type 2 diabetes (age 47-99 years) | 0.008-0.328 | 0.008-0.328 | Magliano et al 14, Keating et al 13 |
| Mortality rate for those without type 2 diabetes (age 47-99 years) | 0.002-0.332 | 0.002-0.332 | Magliano et al 14, Keating et al 13 |
| Probability of healthy BMI range (start of trial) | 0 | 0 | RCT |
| Probability of overweight BMI range (start of trial) | 0.331 | 0.331 | RCT |
| Probability of obese BMI range (start of trial) | 0.603 | 0.603 | RCT |
| Probability of type 2 diabetes (start of trial) | 0.066 | 0.066 | RCT |
| Probability of obese BMI range at start of trial to overweight BMI range at 12 months | 0.201 (0.375) | 0.439 (0.305) | RCT |
| Probability of overweight BMI range at start of trial to healthy BMI range at 12 months | 0.188 (0.639) | 0.414 (0.398) | RCT |
| Probability of healthy BMI range at 12 months to overweight BMI range at 24 months | 0.320 (0.680) | 0.509 (0.346) | RCT |
| Probability of overweight BMI range at 12 months to obese BMI range at 24 months | 0.099 (0.889) | 0.286 (0.571) | RCT |
| Probability of diabetes remission at 12 months | 0.074 | 0.167 | RCT |
| Quality of life adjustments | |||
| Normal health state | 0.81(0.07) | 0.81(0.07) | RCT |
| Overweight health state | 0.81 (0.06) | 0.81 (0.06) | RCT |
| Obese health state | 0.78 (0.07) | 0.78 (0.07) | RCT |
| Type 2 diabetes | 0.75 (0.10) | 0.75 (0.10) | RCT |
| Start age | 47.4 | 47.4 | RCT 2 |
Values are presented as mean (SD). SD – standard deviation; as tested in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RCT – randomised controlled trial; BMI – Body Mass Index