Table 3.
Markov model results (5 year and lifetime means per patient)
| After 5 years (Age < 53 years) | Lifetime (Age = 99 years) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CP | SC | CP | SC | |
| Cumulative incidences | ||||
| Total life years | 6.94 | 6.94 | 34.64 | 34.59 |
| Years spent in normal health state | 0.28 | 0.16 | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| Years spent in overweight health state | 2.51 | 2.29 | 10.24 | 9.66 |
| Years spent in obese health state | 3.50 | 3.80 | 16.22 | 16.55 |
| Developing type 2 diabetes | 7.77% | 8.02% | 34.95% | 34.99% |
| Mortality rate for those with type 2 diabetes | 0.49% | 0.53% | 39.59% | 40.34% |
| Cost effectiveness analysis | ||||
| QALYs discounted | 4.87 | 4.86 | 15.31 | 15.28 |
| Cost discounted | AUD 16 667 | AUD 16 544 | AUD 55 511 | AUD 55 581 |
| Incremental efficacy | CP = 0.01 QALYs | CP = 0.03 QALYs | ||
| C/E | AUD 3 422 | AUD 3 405 | AUD 3 625 | AUD 3 638 |
| ICER | CP = AUD 11 260 per QALY | CP dominant | ||
| QALYs undiscounted | 5.48 | 5.46 | 27.11 | 27.04 |
| Cost discounted | AUD 18 676 | AUD 18 586 | AUD 100 379 | AUD 100 626 |
| Incremental efficacy | CP = 0.01 QALYs | CP = 0.07 QALYs | ||
| C/E | AUD 3 410 | AUD 3 401 | AUD 3 703 | AUD 3 721 |
| ICER | CP = AUD 7 349 per QALY | CP dominant | ||
CP = commercial programme; SC = standard care; BMI = body mass index; QALY = quality adjusted life year; C/E = cost effectiveness; ICER = incremental cost effectiveness ratio; AUD = Australian dollar