Table 2.
Mathematical model parameter estimates
| Parameter | Description | Median estimate (95% crI)# | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdomen model | |||
| δwMel | Dose-response intercept for wMel-infected mosquitoes | −1.12 (−3.22, 0.33) | |
| θDENV1 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-1 | 5.90 (4.53, 6.58) | |
| θDENV2 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-2 | 6.78 (5.88, 7.66) | |
| θDENV3 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-3 | 8.41 (7.17, 10.29) | |
| θDENV4 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-4 | 9.50 (8.34, 12.27) | |
| γ | Dose response shape parameter | 2.88 (1.66, 3.97) | |
| ρabdomen | Over-dispersion parameter for abdomen model | 0.46 (0.38, 0.53) | |
| Saliva model§ | Baseline | Alternative | |
| εwMel | Scaling of infectious dose parameters for wMel-infected vs WT mosquitoes | 3.41 (0.66, 11.2) | Fixed at 1 |
| κ | Power on infectivity growth with time | 3.80 (1.99, 6.59) | 3.40 (2.02, 5.04) |
| βWT | Timescale of infectivity saturation in saliva of WT mosquitoes | 12.3 (9.5, 30.8) | 11.6 (8.7, 19.6) |
| βwMel | Timescale of infectivity saturation in saliva of wMel-infected mosquitoes | 12.8 (7.3, 32.5) | 20.7 (15.4, 40.9) |
| ϕDENV1 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-1 | 0.52 (0.13, 0.81) | 0.60 (0.30, 0.97) |
| ϕDENV2 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-2 | 1.57 (0.37, 2.99) | 1.79 (0.80, 3.44) |
| ϕDENV3 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-3 | 0.94 (0.23, 2.15) | 1.11 (0.46, 2.33) |
| ϕDENV4 | Infectious dose parameter for DENV-4 | 0.99 (0.24, 1.95) | 1.13 (0.50, 2.32) |
| ρsaliva | Over-dispersion parameter for abdomen model | 0.19 (0.13, 0.27) | 0.19 (0.13, 0.27) |
#
Median estimates and 95% credible intervals of parameters of the mathematical models (equations 3 and 4) used to fit the abdomen and saliva infection data on wMel-infected and WT mosquitoes are shown. Time unit is days.
§
For the saliva model, estimates are shown for the best-fitting baseline model and an alternative model where the phenotypic effect of wMel infection is forced to act on the parameter β, determining EIP.