Table 1. Model runs used to assess the potential impact of climate and land cover change on species and genera richness in Madagascar.
| Threshold technique | Scenario | Taxonomic level | Mean Model performance (SD) | Pixel level loss/gain in richness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC | COR | Kappa | Minimum | Mean | Maximum | |||
| T1 | Land cover only | Species | 0.876 (0.05) | 0.684 (0.08) | 0.646 (0.12) | -699 | -38.82 | 213 |
| T3 | Land cover only | Genera | 0.859 (0.04) | 0.638 (0.06) | 0.599 (0.09) | -368 | 1.10 | 151 |
| T3 | Climate only | Species | 0.923 (0.04) | 0.765 (0.06) | 0.731 (0.10) | -705 | -39.50 | 199 |
| T2 | Climate only | Genera | 0.907 (0.03) | 0.721 (0.05) | 0.681 (0.08) | -260 | 19.82 | 187 |
| T1 | Combined | Species | 0.944 (0.03) | 0.803 (0.06) | 0.789 (0.10) | -791 | -27.69 | 212 |
| T2 | Combined | Genera | 0.927 (0.03) | 0.758 (0.05) | 0.735 (0.07) | -383 | 18.80 | 218 |
Only those thresholds selected for further analyses are shown (See S1 Table for complete table and discussion of model sensitivity to threshold selection). T1 runs were thresholded using the “sensitivity = specificity” rule; T2 runs were thresholded using Youden’s index; and T3 runs were thresholded using the “predicted prevalence = observed prevalence” rule. The mean values (and their associated standard deviations) for AUC, COR and Kappa are shown. Values for the model performance metrics are based on the average of 828 genera and 2186 species. The mean, minimum and maximum pixel level loss/gain in richness is also given.