Table 3.

Predictors of Incident Heart Failure in Multivariable Analysis (n=6098)

Full Model With Adjusted HR (c‐Index=0.81)
	Standardized HR*	Wald Statistic	P Value	Change in BIC*	Change in AIC*	Change in c‐Index*
Age	1.54 (1.22 to 1.95)	12.968	<0.0001	−8.4	−11.30	0.015
Male gender	2.05 (1.63 to 2.58)	37.234	<0.0001	−33.5	−36.40	0.031
Body mass index	1.29 (1.06 to 1.56)	6.618	0.01	−1.4	−4.30	0.01
Diabetes mellitus	1.20 (1.04 to 1.37)	6.442	0.011	−1.2	−4.10	0.01
Systolic blood pressure	1.28 (1.00 to 1.62)	3.961	0.047	1.0	−1.90	0.005
Diastolic blood pressure	0.77 (0.60 to 0.99)	4.264	0.039	0.6	−2.30	0.005
Heart rate	1.45 (1.20 to 1.75)	15.261	<0.0001	−9.7	−12.60	0.011
L/ESPTI	1.78 (1.45 to 2.17)	30.948	<0.0001	−23.8	−26.70	0.016
Systolic and diastolic blood pressure added together*	—	—	—	0.10	−2.80	0.005

All models are adjusted for ethnicity, antihypertensive medication use, total cholesterol, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Only significant predictors of heart failure are shown. HR indicates hazard ratio; L/E_SPTI, late/early systolic pressure–time integral.

^*SDs are as follows: age, 10.2 years; body mass index, 5.5 kg/m²; systolic blood pressure, 21.4 mm Hg; diastolic blood pressure, 10.3 mm Hg; heart rate, 10 bpm; L/E_SPTI, 2.8%.

^*AIC, Akaike's information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion. For both, larger decreases (changes with negative sign) indicate a larger improvement in model fit.

^*Larger increases indicate a larger improvement in model performance.

^*This row presents improvements in model performance when both systolic and diastolic blood pressure are added to a model containing all other variables contained in the full model.