Table 3.

Cost Estimates (Average Cost per Year in Constant 2007 Dollars) from Predictors 2 and NLTCS based on Alternative Models Using Predictors 1 and/or Predictors 2 Transition Parameters

					Pure Type						Correlations of Cost Vectors
Cost Item/Type	Data and Transition Parameters	N	Observed	Predicted	I	II	III	IV	Chi-Squared	df	1	2
Males
1. Direct Medical Care	Predictors 2 Alone: Form 3	265	12,083	12,105	7,471	10,681	14,985	17,380	22.50	15	1.000	0.989	0.957
2. Direct Medical Care	Predictors 2 with Predictors 1 Transitions: Form 2	265	12,083	12,115	7,432	10,228	14,472	18,797	23.16	15	0.989	1.000	0.96S
3. Medicare Payments	NLTCS with Predictors 1 Transitions	583	11,387	11,451	5,674	10,832	12,269	17,549	119.58	51	0.957	0.969	1.00C
Females
1. Direct Medical Care	Predictors 2 Alone: Form 3	349	10,662	10,660	6,641	6,308	12,483	20,589	45.49	15	1.000	0.999	0.79E
2. Direct Medical Care	Predictors 2 with Predictors 1 Transitions: Form 2	349	10,662	10,645	6,929	6,024	12,331	21,545	46.12	15	0.999	1.000	0.764
3. Medicare Payments	NLTCS with Predictors 1 Transitions	1,595	10,569	10,593	4,275	8,749	13,258	13,572	111.12	51	0.795	0.764	1.00C

Notes

Direct medical care included hospitalization, outpatient treatment and procedures, assistive devices, and medications. Costs were based on units of direct medical care services using nationally representative average payment rates for the various services, originally expressed in constant 2004 dollars using the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index, and converted to constant 2007 dollars using the same CPI series.

Medicare services included home health care, hospice care, skilled nursing facility care, and acute care and other services provided under Parts A and B of Medicare. Costs include the Medicare program payments and exclude deductibles and copayments.