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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Apr 13.
Published in final edited form as: N Engl J Med. 2009 Dec 3;361(23):2252–2260. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa0900459

Figure 1. Forecasted Distribution of Risk Factors, 2005 through 2020.

Figure 1

The projected rates of change in the categorical distribution of smoking status (Panel A) and body-mass index (BMI) (Panel B) from 2005 to 2020 are shown, assuming a continuation of trends occurring over the 15 years preceding 2005. The categories for weight were defined according to the World Health Organization criteria: normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], 18.5 to 24.9), overweight (BMI, 25.0 to 29.9), obese (BMI, 30.0 to 34.9; obesity class I), and morbidly obese (BMI, ≥35.0; obesity classes II and III). Historical trends for smoking were measured with the use of the National Health Interview Survey (1990 through 1991 and 2004 through 2006) and historical trends for BMI with the use of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988 through 1994 and 1999 through 2002).