. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Apr 13.

Published in final edited form as: N Engl J Med. 2009 Dec 3;361(23):2252–2260. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa0900459

Table 3.

Effect of Alternative Assumptions about Trends in Smoking and BMI on Life Expectancy and Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy for a Typical 18-Year-Old.^*

Scenario			Change, 2005–2020
	Smoking Status Alone^†		BMI Alone^‡		Both Smoking Status and BMI^§
	life expectancy	quality-adjusted life expectancy	life expectancy	quality-adjusted life expectancy	life expectancy	quality-adjusted life expectancy
			years

Historical 15-year rate of change (baseline)	0.31	0.41	−1.02	−1.32	−0.71	−0.91

Historical 30-year rate of change	0.32	0.43	−0.76	−1.00	−0.43	−0.56

Historical 5-year rate of change	0.41	0.52	−0.58	−0.75	−0.10	−0.17

All persons become nonsmokers of normal weight^¶	1.73	2.17	1.40	2.44	3.76	5.16

BMI denotes body-mass index.

^†

This category shows the effect of continuing trends in smoking status with BMI remaining at 2005 levels.

^‡

This category shows the effect of continuing trends in BMI with smoking status remaining at 2005 levels.

^§

This category shows the effect of continuing trends in both smoking status and BMI.

^¶

In this scenario, current and former smokers were classified as former smokers who had not smoked for 10 years or more.