Table 1.
Demographic and epidemiologic parameters of the probability of developing pneumococcal disease and the efficacy of PCV13 and PCV10 and cost of care in Colombian children younger than 5 years, 2014
| Parameters | Mean value | Data distribution | Reference | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic | |||||
| Newborns in 2012 | 676 835 | Does not vary | [19] | ||
| Life expectancy | 73,78 | Does not vary | [9] | ||
| Discount rate | 3% | 2% - 5% | [13] | ||
| Epidemiologic | |||||
| Pneumococcal sepsis probability | 0,000184 | Beta | [13] | ||
| Pneumococcal meningitis probability | 0,000037 | Beta | [13] | ||
| Radiographically confirmed pneumonia probability (a) | 0,007441 | Beta | [13,15] | ||
| Pneumococcal AOM probability (b) | 0,031171 | Beta | [15,17] | ||
| PID mortality (meningitis, sepsis) | 37% | Beta | [18] | ||
| Pneumonia mortality | 3% | Beta | [18] | ||
| Vaccination coverage | 90% | Beta | Assumption | ||
| Herd effect | 42% | [20] | |||
| Parameter | Mean value | Range | Data distribution | References | |
| Inferior limit | Superior limit | ||||
| Efficacy of intervention | |||||
| Meningitis, sepsis PCV10 | 65,0% | 11,1% | 86,2% | Beta | [22] |
| Radiographically confirmed pneumonia PCV10 | 22,4% | 5,7% | 36,1% | Beta | [22] |
| AOM due to S. pneumoniae PCV10 (c) | 32,4% | 21,6% | 40,4% | Beta | [11,16] |
| Meningitis, sepsis PCV13 | 89,1% | 73,7% | 95,6% | Beta | [5] |
| Radiographically confirmed pneumonia PCV13 | 30,3% | 10,7% | 45,7% | Beta | [21] |
| AOM due to S. pneumoniae PCV13 (d) | 68,1% | 61,5% | 74,6% | Beta | [11,23] |
| Vaccine costs | |||||
| Cost of PCV10 | $ 14,12 | $ 12,71 | $ 15,53 | Gama | [24] |
| Cost of PCV13 | $ 15,68 | $ 14,11 | $ 17,25 | Gama | [24] |
| Administration cost (per dose) | $ 1,00 | $ 0,9 | $ 1,10 | Gama | Assumption |
| Cost of sepsis | $ 8 192 | $292 | $ 104 535 | Gama | Health insurance company |
| Cost of meningitis | $11 595 | $ 1 165 | $ 54 891 | Gama | Health insurance company |
| Cost of pneumonia | $ 1 854 | $ 306 | $ 40 812 | Gama | Health insurance company |
| Cost of AOM | $ 40 | $ 36 | $ 44 | Gama | [26,27] |
a. Incidence of pneumonia in Medellin in 2009, adjusted to the proportion of pneumonia cases confirmed radiographically (Benavides et al [13]).
b. Incidence of AOM in Medellin in 2009, adjusted to the proportion of AOM cases due to pneumococcus (Sierra et al [17]).
c. Clinical efficacy of PCV11 for preventing AOM due to S. pneumoniae, adjusted according to the proportional frequency of serotypes circulating in Colombia between 2009 and 2012, contained in PCV10.
d. Clinical efficacy of PCV7 for preventing AOM due to S. pneumoniae, adjusted according to the proportional frequency of serotypes circulating in Colombia between 2009 and 2012, contained in PCV13.