Table 1.
Type of cigarette smoked, market segment of current cigarette smokers’ current brands of FM and RYO cigarettes, and features of FM cigarettes by phase: percentages and results of logistic regression models
| Time period | Differences between PP phases—unadjusted models | Differences between PP phases—adjusted models | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per cent | OR | 95% CI | Per cent | OR | 95% CI | |
| Type of cigarette smoked (n=8610)† | ||||||
| Any FM | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 79.6 | 1.00 | 79.5 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 83.1 | 1.26 | 1.00 to 1.59 | 83.2 | 1.28* | 1.02 to 1.62 |
| PP year 1 | 80.8 | 1.08 | 0.93 to 1.24 | 81.0 | 1.10 | 0.96 to 1.28 |
| PP post-tax | 78.8 | 0.95 | 0.79 to 1.15 | 79.2 | 0.98 | 0.81 to 1.19 |
| Any RYO | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 32.8 | 1.00 | 32.9 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 27.0 | 0.76** | 0.62 to 0.92 | 26.7 | 0.73** | 0.60 to 0.90 |
| PP year 1 | 33.6 | 1.04 | 0.92 to 1.17 | 33.4 | 1.02 | 0.90 to 1.16 |
| PP post-tax | 32.0 | 0.96 | 0.82 to 1.13 | 31.4 | 0.93 | 0.79 to 1.10 |
| Both FM and RYO | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 13.9 | 1.00 | 13.8 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 11.7 | 0.82 | 0.62 to 1.09 | 11.5 | 0.81 | 0.60 to 1.08 |
| PP year 1 | 15.9 | 1.17 | 0.99 to 1.38 | 15.9 | 1.19* | 1.00 to 1.41 |
| PP post-tax | 12.9 | 0.92 | 0.73 to 1.16 | 12.8 | 0.92 | 0.72 to 1.17 |
| Market segment (n=7076)‡ | ||||||
| RYO tobacco | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 22.7 | 1.00 | 22.9 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 17.8 | 0.74* | 0.57 to 0.95 | 17.6 | 0.71* | 0.55 to 0.93 |
| PP year 1 | 21.4 | 0.93 | 0.80 to 1.08 | 21.3 | 0.91 | 0.78 to 1.06 |
| PP post-tax | 21.3 | 0.92 | 0.75 to 1.13 | 21.7 | 0.93 | 0.75 to 1.15 |
| Value FM cigarettes | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 21.1 | 1.00 | 21.4 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 22.2 | 1.07 | 0.84 to 1.35 | 22.1 | 1.04 | 0.82 to 1.33 |
| PP year 1 | 25.8 | 1.30** | 1.12 to 1.50 | 25.5 | 1.27** | 1.10 to 1.48 |
| PP post-tax | 27.4 | 1.41** | 1.16 to 1.71 | 27.8 | 1.44*** | 1.18 to 1.76 |
| Mainstream FM cigarettes | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 39.2 | 1.00 | 39.1 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 42.7 | 1.16 | 0.94 to 1.42 | 42.9 | 1.17 | 0.96 to 1.44 |
| PP year 1 | 37.4 | 0.92 | 0.81 to 1.05 | 37.4 | 0.93 | 0.82 to 1.06 |
| PP post-tax | 36.2 | 0.88 | 0.74 to 1.05 | 36.1 | 0.88 | 0.73 to 1.05 |
| Premium FM cigarettes | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 16.9 | 1.00 | 16.5 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 17.3 | 1.03 | 0.79 to 1.33 | 17.7 | 1.09 | 0.83 to 1.43 |
| PP year 1 | 15.4 | 0.90 | 0.76 to 1.05 | 15.7 | 0.93 | 0.79 to 1.11 |
| PP post-tax | 15.1 | 0.88 | 0.70 to 1.09 | 14.5 | 0.85 | 0.68 to 1.07 |
| FM cigarette features (n=4824)§ | ||||||
| Menthol | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 11.0 | 1.00 | 11.1 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 10.9 | 0.99 | 0.69 to 1.42 | 11.3 | 1.02 | 0.70 to 1.47 |
| PP year 1 | 10.9 | 0.98 | 0.78 to 1.24 | 11.0 | 0.99 | 0.78 to 1.25 |
| PP post-tax | 11.3 | 1.03 | 0.76 to 1.39 | 10.9 | 0.98 | 0.71 to 1.34 |
| Cigarette length—king size | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 2.2 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 1.1 | 0.52 | 0.21 to 1.24 | 1.2 | 0.52 | 0.21 to 1.25 |
| PP year 1 | 2.0 | 0.91 | 0.56 to 1.47 | 2.0 | 0.90 | 0.55 to 1.45 |
| PP post-tax | 2.4 | 1.10 | 0.58 to 2.10 | 2.4 | 1.09 | 0.57 to 2.09 |
| Cigarette diameter—slims | ||||||
| Pre-PP | 0.8 | 1.00 | 0.7 | 1.00 | ||
| Transition | 1.4 | 1.77 | 0.62 to 5.06 | 1.4 | 1.86 | 0.65 to 5.31 |
| PP year 1 | 1.8 | 2.30* | 1.12 to 4.72 | 1.8 | 2.39* | 1.16 to 4.94 |
| PP post-tax | 1.3 | 1.65 | 0.68 to 4.00 | 1.3 | 1.65 | 0.68 to 4.04 |
*p<0.05, **p<0.01, ***p<0.001.
†Of n=8811 smokers, we excluded those who did not have SES information (n=201). Analysed n=8610.
‡Of n=8679 cigarette smokers, we excluded those who: did not provide their current brand name (n=283); currently smoked unbranded tobacco or gave a brand of cigars/cigarillos or e-cigarettes (n=60); did not recall where they purchased their pack or received it as a gift (n=75); did not provide a valid pack size (n=231); did not report a price (n=413); purchased tobacco duty free or overseas (n=70); skipped relevant questions due to back-coding of verbatim responses (n=77); gave responses that were deemed unlikely to be correct (such as a non-existent pack size or unrealistically low or high price) (n=243); or did not have SES information (n=151). Analysed n=7076.
§Of n=4958 FM only cigarette smokers included in the market segment analyses, we excluded those who: did not provide their current variant name (n=42); or did not have SES information (n=92). Analysed n=4824.
FM, factory made; PP, plain packaging; RYO, roll-your-own; SES, socioeconomic status.