Table 1.

Retrospective and prospective evaluation of prediction models for 30-day all-cause readmissions

	Sensitivity	Specificity	C-Statistic	PPV	NPV	Screen Positive	F-Score
Retrospective Evaluation of Prediction Rules
Lookback period: 6 months
Prior Admissions
≥1	53%	74%	0.640	26%	91%	30%	0.350
≥2	32%	90%	0.610	35%	89%	13%	0.333
≥3	20%	96%	0.578	44%	88%	7%	0.274
Prior ED Visits
≥1	31%	81%	0.558	21%	87%	21%	0.252
≥2	13%	93%	0.532	25%	87%	8%	0.172
≥3	7%	97%	0.519	27%	86%	4%	0.111
Prior 30-day Readmissions
≥1	39%	85%	0.623	31%	89%	18%	0.347
≥2	21%	95%	0.582	43%	88%	7%	0.284
≥3	13%	98%	0.555	53%	87%	4%	0.208
Combined Rules
Admit≥1 & ED≥1	22%	92%	0.568	31%	88%	10%	0.255
Admit≥2 & ED≥1	15%	96%	0.556	40%	87%	5%	0.217
Admit≥1 & 30-day≥1	39%	85%	0.623	31%	89%	18%	0.346
Admit≥2 & 30-day≥1	29%	92%	0.603	37%	89%	11%	0.324
30-day≥1 & ED≥1	17%	95%	0.559	37%	87%	6%	0.229
30-day≥1 & ED≥2	8%	98%	0.527	40%	86%	3%	0.132
Lookback period: 12 months
Prior Admission
≥1	60%	68%	0.593	24%	91%	36%	0.340
≥2*	40%	85%	0.624	31%	89%	18%	0.361
≥3	28%	92%	0.600	37%	88%	11%	0.318
Prior ED Visit
≥1	38%	74%	0.560	20%	88%	28%	0.260
≥2	20%	88%	0.544	23%	87%	13%	0.215
≥3	8%	96%	0.523	27%	86%	4%	0.126
Prior 30-day Readmission
≥1	43%	84%	0.630	30%	90%	20%	0.353
≥2	24%	94%	0.592	41%	88%	9%	0.305
≥3	11%	98%	0.548	54%	87%	3%	0.186
Combined Rules
Admit≥1 & ED≥1	29%	87%	0.580	27%	88%	15%	0.281
Admit≥2 & ED≥1	22%	93%	0.574	34%	88%	9%	0.266
Admit≥1 & 30-day≥1	42%	84%	0.630	30%	90%	14%	0.353
Admit≥2 & 30-day≥1	34%	89%	0.615	34%	89%	14%	0.341
30-day≥1 & ED≥1	21%	93%	0.569	35%	88%	9%	0.261
30-day≥1 & ED≥2	13%	96%	0.545	37%	87%	5%	0.187
Prospective Evaluation of Prediction Rule
30-Day All-Cause	39%	84%	0.614	30%	89%	18%	0.326

Legend:

^*Optimum prediction model; Admit = inpatient hospital admission; ED = emergency room visit; 30-day = prior 30-day readmission