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. 2015 Apr 21;6:6869. doi: 10.1038/ncomms7869

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Potential predictive skills are obtained from the tropical trans-basin (a) SLP and (b) SST gradients, (c) ENSO Modoki and (d) Warm pool ENSO indices in the initialized run (blue), the uninitialized run (red) and persistence (black), measured by anomaly correlation coefficient. A 12-month running mean is applied to indices. Black dotted line denotes the statistical significance at the 90% level with eight degrees of freedom on the basis of one-side Student's t-test.