Table 1. Estimates for Model Parameters.

Parameter	Base Value	Range for Sensitivity Analysis	Source
TB Dynamics
Probability of death, untreated smear-positive TB¹	0.70	0.50–0.95	[37]
Probability of death, untreated smear-negative TB	0.20	0.15–0.25	[37]
Secondary TB infections per year, smear-positive TB	10	8–12	[38]
Relative infectiousness of smear-negative TB	0.22	0.16–0.28	[39]
Fraction of new TB cases that are smear-positive	0.53	0.40–0.66	[37]
Characteristics of TB diagnosis
Prevalence of active TB among persons with suspected active TB	0.14	0.11–0.18	[40]
Sensitivity for TB
Clinician diagnosis²	0.53	0.40–0.67	[31]
Sputum smear microscopy	0.53	0.34–0.65	[41]
IGRA³ (QuantiFERON-TB Gold)	0.84	0.56–0.96	[4]
Xpert MTB/RIF 4 (smear-positive TB)	0.98	0.97–0.99	[18]
Xpert MTB/RIF (smear-negative TB)	0.67	0.58–0.74	[18]
Specificity for active TB 5
Clinician diagnosis	0.94	0.75–1.00	[42]
Sputum smear microscopy (two smears)	0.97	0.75–1.00	[43]
Xpert MTB/RIF	0.98	0.97–0.99	[18]
IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold)	0.52	0.41–0.62	[4]
Xpert MTB/RIF Rif resistance
Sensitivity	0.94	0.87–0.97	[18]
Specificity	0.98	0.97–0.99	[18]
Time to TB diagnosis (days)
Sputum smear microscopy	7	2.92–14.05	[44,45]
GeneXpert MTB/RIF	7	0.50–14.05
IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold)	7	2.92–14.05
Loss to follow-up
Sputum smear microscopy	0.15	0.11–0.19	[46,47]
Xpert MTB/RIF	0.15	0.11–0.19
IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold)	0.15	0.11–0.19	[17]
Characteristics of TB treatment
Proportion of treated TB patients who die	0.045	0.033–0.056	[31]
Proportion of treated HIV 6 /TB patients who die	0.090	0.068–0.114	[31]
Proportion of treated TB patients infections at 1 year	0.045	0.033–0.056	[31]
HIV/TB
HIV prevalence, general population	0.3%	0.225–0.4%	[48]
HIV prevalence, patients with TB	5.3%	4.0–6.6%	[31]
Proportion of HIV-infected patients with ART 7 access	0.10	0.075–0.125	[48]
Costs and effectiveness, US Dollars (2013)
Unit cost, independent laboratory
Sputum smear microscopy (two smears)	$3.00	$1-$5	[24,49]
Xpert MTB/RIF	$25	$20-$57	[50]
IGRA (QuantiFERON-TB Gold)	$30	$15-$50	[27,30]
Mean cost of treating one case of drug-susceptible TB	$66.00	$50-$75	[31]
Mean cost of treating one case of MDR 8 TB	$2600	$500-$5500	[31]
DALY 9 weights
Active TB	0.264	0.198–0.330	[51]
TB treatment	0.132	0.099–0.165	[17]
Life expectancy after TB cure (years)	40	30–50	[52,53]

¹ TB, Tuberculosis

² In the absence of any TB-specific microbiological test

³ IGRA, Interferon-Gamma Release Assay

⁴ MTB/RIF, Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Rifampin Resistance Testing

⁵ Excludes studies not performed in developing countries

⁶ HIV, Human Immunodeficiency Virus

⁷ ART, antiretroviral therapy

⁸ MDR, Multi-drug resistant

⁹ DALY, Disability-Adjusted Life Year