Table 2.
Combination of terms with the best sensitivity (keeping specificity ≥50%), best specificity (keeping sensitivity ≥50%), and best optimization of sensitivity and specificity (based on abs [sensitivity-specificity] < 1%) for detecting studies of prognosis in MEDLINE in 2000
| Search Strategy OVID search* | Sensitivity (%) Development Validation Diff (95% CI)† | Specificity (%) Development Validation Diff (95% CI)† | Precision (%) Development Validation Diff (95% CI)† | Accuracy (%) Development Validation Diff (95% CI)† |
| Best Sensitivity | ||||
| incidence.sh. | 90.1 | 79.7 | 1.7 | 79.7 |
| OR exp mortality | 82.3 | 79.7 | 1.6 | 79.7 |
| OR follow-up studies.sh. | -7.8 (-17.9 to 2.3) | 0 | -0.1 (-0.5 to 0.5) | 0 |
| OR prognos:.tw. | ||||
| OR predict:.tw. | ||||
| OR course:.tw. | ||||
| Best Specificity | ||||
| prognos:.tw. | 52.3 | 94.1 | 3.3 | 93.9 |
| OR first episode.tw. | 48.1 | 94.2 | 3.2 | 94.0 |
| OR cohort.tw. | -4.2 (-18.6 to 10.3) | 0.1 (-0.3 to 0.5) | -0.1 (-1.3 to 1.3) | 0.1 (-0.4 to 0.5) |
| Best Optimization of Sensitivity & Specificity | ||||
| prognosis.sh. | 82.9 | 83.7 | 1.9 | 83.7 |
| OR diagnosed.tw. | 73.4 | 84.1 | 1.8 | 84.0 |
| OR cohort:.mp. | -9.5 (-21.5 to 2.5) | -0.4 (-0.2 to 1.1) | -0.1 (-0.7 to 0.5) | 0.3 (-0.2 to 1.0) |
| OR predictor:.tw. | ||||
| OR death.tw. | ||||
| OR exp models, statistical |
*Search strategies are reported using Ovid's search engine syntax for MEDLINE. The PubMed syntax is embedded in PubMed's Clinical Queries (see Discussion). †Diff = Difference, comparing the development and validation data sets using the iterative method of Miettinen and Nurminen for two independent binomial proportions. None of the differences were statistically significant. sh = subject heading; exp = explode, a search term that automatically includes closely related indexing terms; : = truncation; tw = textword (word or phrase appears in title or abstract); mp = multiple posting (term appears in title, abstract, or MeSH heading).