Appendix Table 6.
Predicted and Observed Events for Each Risk Score, Including Participants With Diabetes* and a Calculated Hemoglobin A1c Level From a Baseline Fasting Glucose Level
| Risk Score | Predicted Events, n (%) | Observed Events, n (%) | Signed Absolute Difference | Discordance, %† | c-Statistic | Discrimination Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (n = 4804) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 495.3 (10.31) | 347 (7.22) | 3.09 | 43 | 0.69 | 0.06 |
| FRS-CVD | 726.8 (15.13) | 584 (12.16) | 2.97 | 24 | 0.72 | 0.11 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 332.6 (6.92) | 175 (3.64) | 3.28 | 90 | 0.72 | 0.06 |
| RRS | 390.8 (8.14) | 418 (8.70) | −0.57 | −7 | 0.72 | 0.07 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 511.5 (10.65) | 281 (5.85) | 4.80 | 82 | 0.71 | 0.07 |
| Men (n = 2271) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 312.8 (13.77) | 220 (9.69) | 4.09 | 42 | 0.69 | 0.06 |
| FRS-CVD | 467.9 (20.60) | 346 (15.24) | 5.37 | 35 | 0.72 | 0.11 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 251.7 (11.08) | 117 (5.15) | 5.93 | 115 | 0.70 | 0.05 |
| RRS | 254.4 (11.20) | 266 (11.71) | −0.51 | −4 | 0.69 | 0.06 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 309.6 (13.63) | 172 (7.57) | 6.06 | 80 | 0.70 | 0.07 |
| Women (n = 2533) | ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 182.6 (7.21) | 127 (5.01) | 2.19 | 44 | 0.63 | 0.02 |
| FRS-CVD | 259.0 (10.22) | 238 (9.40) | 0.83 | 9 | 0.70 | 0.06 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 80.8 (3.19) | 58 (2.29) | 0.90 | 39 | 0.69 | 0.02 |
| RRS | 136.4 (5.39) | 152 (6.00) | −0.62 | −10 | 0.71 | 0.05 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 201.8 (7.97) | 109 (4.30) | 3.66 | 85 | 0.69 | 0.05 |
ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; ATPIII = Adult Treatment Panel III; CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; FRS = Framingham risk score; RRS = Reynolds Risk Score.
*
Diabetes was defined as a fasting glucose level ≥7.0 mmol/L (≥126 mg/dL) or treated diabetes; 310 of 2271 (13.7%) men and 267 of 2533 (10.5%) women were considered to be diabetic.
†
Percentage discordance calculation: ([{expected percentage − observed percentage}/observed percentage] × 100).