Appendix Table 8.

Predicted and Observed Events Using the AHA-ACC-ASCVD Risk Score in Clinically Relevant Risk Categories Among MESA Participants Linked by Medicare Database

Risk Score, %	Participants, n	Predicted Events, n (%)	Observed Events, Including CMS Data, n (%)	Signed Absolute Difference	Discordance, %*	Hosmer–Lemeshow Chi-Square Statistic
0.0–4.9	910	25.7 (2.8)	21 (2.3)	0.52	23	0.90
5.0–7.4	522	32.5 (6.2)	16 (3.1)	3.15	103	8.91
7.5–9.9	416	36.3 (8.7)	15 (3.6)	5.12	142	13.69
≥10.0	1327	226.5 (17.1)	124 (9.3)	7.72	83	55.92
Total	3175	321.0 (10.1)	176 (5.5)	4.57	82	79.41

ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; CMS = Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; MESA = Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

^*Percentage discordance calculation: ([{expected percentage − observed percentage}/observed percentage] × 100).