Table 3.
Predicted and Observed Events for Each Risk Score in Clinically Relevant Risk Categories: Men
| Risk Score, % | Participants, n | Predicted Events, n (%) | Observed Events, n (%) | Signed Absolute Difference | Discordance, %* | Hosmer–Lemeshow Chi-Square Statistic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRS-CHD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 203 | 6.9 (3.4) | 4 (2.0) | 1.4 | 73 | 1.26 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 304 | 19.1 (6.3) | 10 (3.3) | 3.0 | 91 | 4.59 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 343 | 29.9 (8.7) | 14 (4.1) | 4.6 | 114 | 9.27 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 1111 | 195.2 (17.6) | 136 (12.2) | 5.3 | 44 | 21.78 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 1961 | 251.1 (12.8) | 164 (8.4) | 4.4 | 53 | 36.91 |
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CVD | ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 85 | 2.8 (3.3) | 1 (1.2) | 2.1 | 182 | 1.21 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 156 | 9.9 (6.3) | 7 (4.5) | 1.8 | 41 | 0.90 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 237 | 21.0 (8.9) | 7 (3.0) | 5.9 | 200 | 10.25 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 1483 | 325.0 (21.9) | 246 (16.6) | 5.3 | 32 | 24.60 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 1961 | 358.7 (18.3) | 261 (13.3) | 5.0 | 37 | 36.96 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 327 | 11.1 (3.4) | 3 (0.9) | 2.5 | 270 | 6.12 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 309 | 19.4 (6.3) | 6 (1.9) | 4.3 | 224 | 9.89 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 318 | 27.7 (8.7) | 4 (1.3) | 7.5 | 593 | 22.25 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 1007 | 160.3 (15.9) | 73 (7.2) | 8.7 | 119 | 56.59 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 1961 | 218.6 (11.1) | 86 (4.4) | 6.8 | 154 | 94.85 |
|
| ||||||
| RRS | ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 528 | 16.7 (3.2) | 17 (3.2) | 0.0 | −2 | 0.00 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 350 | 21.8 (6.2) | 21 (6.0) | 0.2 | 4 | 0.03 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 274 | 23.9 (8.7) | 18 (6.6) | 2.1 | 33 | 1.58 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 809 | 151.1 (18.7) | 140 (17.3) | 1.4 | 8 | 1.01 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 1961 | 213.5 (10.9) | 196 (10.0) | 0.9 | 9 | 2.62 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 375 | 12.8 (3.4) | 5 (1.3) | 2.1 | 156 | 4.94 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 317 | 19.7 (6.2) | 8 (2.5) | 3.7 | 147 | 7.45 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 263 | 22.8 (8.7) | 8 (3.0) | 5.6 | 186 | 10.56 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 1006 | 176.7 (17.6) | 104 (10.3) | 7.2 | 70 | 36.32 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 1961 | 232.1 (11.8) | 125 (6.4) | 5.5 | 86 | 59.27 |
ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; ATPIII = Adult Treatment Panel III; CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; FRS = Framingham risk score; RRS = Reynolds Risk Score.
*
Percentage discordance calculation: ([{expected percentage − observed percentage}/observed percentage] × 100).