Table 4.
Predicted and Observed Events for Each Risk Score in Clinically Relevant Risk Categories: Women
| Risk Score, % | Participants, n | Predicted Events, n (%) | Observed Events, n (%) | Signed Absolute Difference | Discordance, %* | Hosmer–Lemeshow Chi-Square Statistic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRS-CHD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 963 | 32.2 (3.3) | 29 (3.0) | 0.3 | 11 | 0.33 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 594 | 36.3 (6.1) | 26 (4.4) | 1.7 | 40 | 3.13 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 343 | 29.5 (8.6) | 16 (4.7) | 3.9 | 85 | 6.78 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 366 | 48.5 (13.2) | 28 (7.7) | 5.6 | 73 | 9.98 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 2266 | 146.5 (6.5) | 99 (4.4) | 2.1 | 48 | 20.21 |
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CVD | ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 724 | 22.9 (3.2) | 19 (2.6) | 0.5 | 20 | 0.68 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 477 | 29.3 (6.1) | 25 (5.2) | 0.9 | 18 | 0.67 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 325 | 28.1 (8.6) | 28 (8.6) | 0.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 740 | 122.3 (16.5) | 115 (15.5) | 1.0 | 6 | 0.52 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 2266 | 202.6 (8.9) | 187 (8.3) | 0.7 | 8 | 1.87 |
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 1836 | 35.0 (1.9) | 29 (1.6) | 0.3 | 21 | 1.05 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 235 | 14.2 (6.0) | 8 (3.4) | 2.6 | 77 | 2.84 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 109 | 9.3 (8.6) | 5 (4.6) | 4.0 | 87 | 2.21 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 86 | 11.7 (13.6) | 6 (7.0) | 6.6 | 94 | 3.18 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 2266 | 70.2 (3.1) | 48 (2.1) | 1.0 | 46 | 9.29 |
|
| ||||||
| RRS | ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 1608 | 33.2 (2.1) | 55 (3.4) | −1.3 | −40 | 14.60 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 262 | 16.0 (6.1) | 16 (6.1) | 0.0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 158 | 13.7 (8.7) | 16 (10.1) | −1.5 | −15 | 0.43 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 238 | 37.6 (15.8) | 40 (16.8) | −1.0 | −6 | 0.18 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 2266 | 100.5 (4.4) | 127 (5.6) | −1.2 | −21 | 15.21 |
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| 0.0–4.9 | 1140 | 27.4 (2.4) | 19 (1.7) | 0.7 | 44 | 2.64 |
|
| ||||||
| 5.0–7.4 | 355 | 21.8 (6.1) | 16 (4.5) | 1.6 | 36 | 1.65 |
|
| ||||||
| 7.5–9.9 | 235 | 20.5 (8.7) | 12 (5.1) | 3.6 | 71 | 3.86 |
|
| ||||||
| ≥10.0 | 536 | 85.4 (15.9) | 46 (8.6) | 7.3 | 86 | 21.60 |
|
| ||||||
| Total | 2266 | 155.1 (6.8) | 93 (4.1) | 2.7 | 67 | 29.75 |
ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; ATPIII = Adult Treatment Panel III; CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; FRS = Framingham risk score; RRS = Reynolds Risk Score.
*
Percentage discordance calculation: ([{expected percentage − observed percentage}/observed percentage] × 100).