Table 5.
Predicted and Observed Risk for Each Risk Score Among Never-Treated Participants*
| Risk Score | Predicted Events, n (%) | Observed Events, n (%) | Signed Absolute Difference | Discordance, %† | c-Statistic | Discrimination Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total (n = 790) | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 57.5 (7.28) | 12 (1.52) | 5.76 | 379 | 0.75 | 0.07 |
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CVD | 68.1 (8.62) | 18 (2.28) | 6.34 | 278 | 0.77 | 0.08 |
|
| ||||||
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 36.6 (4.63) | 10 (1.27) | 3.37 | 266 | 0.80 | 0.07 |
|
| ||||||
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 44.3 (5.60) | 14 (1.77) | 3.83 | 216 | 0.79 | 0.06 |
| Men (n = 392) | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 39.1 (9.99) | 10 (2.55) | 7.43 | 291 | 0.77 | 0.06 |
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CVD | 49.4 (12.60) | 13 (3.32) | 9.29 | 280 | 0.72 | 0.07 |
|
| ||||||
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 30.9 (7.88) | 9 (2.30) | 5.58 | 243 | 0.75 | 0.05 |
|
| ||||||
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 31.0 (7.90) | 11 (2.81) | 5.09 | 181 | 0.76 | 0.06 |
| Women (n = 398) | ||||||
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CHD | 18.4 (4.62) | 2 (0.50) | 4.12 | 820 | 0.61 | −0.01 |
|
| ||||||
| FRS-CVD | 18.7 (4.70) | 5 (1.26) | 3.44 | 274 | 0.82 | 0.04 |
|
| ||||||
| ATPIII-FRS-CHD | 5.7 (1.43) | 1 (0.25) | 1.18 | 470 | 0.57 | −0.01 |
|
| ||||||
| AHA-ACC-ASCVD | 13.3 (3.34) | 3 (0.75) | 2.59 | 344 | 0.67 | 0.04 |
ACC = American College of Cardiology; AHA = American Heart Association; ASCVD = atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; ATPIII = Adult Treatment Panel III; CHD = coronary heart disease; CVD = cardiovascular disease; FRS = Framingham risk score.
*
Never-treated participants did not receive aspirin or lipid-lowering or antihypertensive medication at baseline or at any of the 5 follow-up visits and did not have coronary revascularization. The Reynolds Risk Score was excluded from this analysis because revascularization was part of the end point.
†
Percentage discordance calculation: ([{expected percentage − observed percentage}/observed percentage] × 100).