Table 2. Variables in the NHW analysis with the interpretation for the original climate interpretation and the epidemiological counterpart.

Variable	Climate Interpretation	Epidemiological Interpretation
x i	Current temperature mean for modeling assumption i.	Mean log-duration under implemented control for modeling assumption i.
y i	Future temperature mean for modeling assumption i.	Mean log-duration under alternative control for modeling assumption i.
x 0	Observed current temperature.	Observed outbreak log-duration.
τ 0	Precision of natural variability.	Precision of variability of individual outbreaks given the observed initial conditions. *
μ	Current mean temperature. *	Mean outbreak duration, implemented control. *
V	Future mean temperature. *	Mean outbreak duration, alternative control. *
λi	Precision of model i (weights). *	Precision of model i (weights). *
Β	Correlation between current and. future projections. *	Correlation between implemented and alternative control projections. *
θ	Ratio between precision for current and future projections. *	Ratio between precision for implemented and alternative control projections. *
τ i and φ i	Not included.	Precision of within projection variability, calculated as the precision of individual replicates around the mean values x i and y i.

* Asterisk indicates parameters treated as random variables and no asterisk indicate data.