Table 1.

Comparison of root mean squared prediction errors (rMSPE), mean coverage rates (CR), and mean width of the 95% posterior CI (w̄) of the proposed method (NHPPM) and the original NHPP method (NHPPS), as well as the probability of the proposed method having tighter 95% CI than NHPPS (Prob.), i.e., Pr(w₁ > w₂), based on 1000 simulated trials with J = 2, 5 or 30 regions, when participating regions have different start-up times.

Settings				Summary Measures
dj	ρ	pct.	Method	rMSPE	CR	w	Prob.
			NHPPS	8.71	0.99	49.44
		0.4	NHPPM, J=2	7.72	0.94	29.15	1.00
			NHPPM, J=5	5.02	0.98	22.27	1.00
	0.1		NHPPM, J=30	3.84	0.97	15.73	1.00
			NHPPS	4.74	0.99	23.68
		0.7	NHPPM, J=2	3.28	0.99	15.54	1.00
			NHPPM, J=5	2.78	0.98	12.68	1.00
0			NHPPM, J=30	2.58	0.97	10.44	1.00
			NHPPS	17.97	0.96	74.88
		0.4	NHPPM, J=2	11.69	0.96	49.91	0.99
			NHPPM, J=5	9.41	0.96	38.24	1.00
	0.3		NHPPM, J=30	5.55	0.99	23.70	1.00
			NHPPS	8.12	0.95	32.34
		0.7	NHPPM, J=2	5.27	0.98	24.00	0.98
			NHPPM, J=5	3.84	0.99	18.34	1.00
			NHPPM, J=30	2.81	0.99	12.94	1.00
			NHPPS	8.53	1.00	50.80
		0.4	NHPPM, J=2	6.80	0.98	34.11	1.00
			NHPPM, J=5	4.47	0.99	23.39	1.00
	0.1		NHPPM, J=30	3.90	0.97	15.74	1.00
			NHPPS	4.45	1.00	24.19
		0.7	NHPPM, J=2	3.28	1.00	17.41	1.00
			NHPPM, J=5	2.84	0.99	13.21	1.00
0.5			NHPPM, J=30	2.59	0.97	10.47	1.00
			NHPPS	18.73	0.96	80.27
		0.4	NHPPM, J=2	13.37	0.97	59.99	0.98
			NHPPM, J=5	9.61	0.98	42.67	1.00
	0.3		NHPPM, J=30	5.68	0.99	24.49	1.00
			NHPPS	7.92	0.97	33.99
		0.7	NHPPM, J=2	5.78	0.98	26.76	0.97
			NHPPM, J=5	4.23	0.98	19.86	1.00
			NHPPM, J=30	2.78	0.99	13.25	1.00