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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 May 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015 May 1;69(1):109–118. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000548

Table 2.

Cross-validated area under the ROC curve (AUROC), capacity savings, and cost savings for prediction models.

Candidate model Failure= HIV RNA Level >1000 copies/ml Failure=HIV RNA Level >400 copies/ml
AUROC
(95% CI)11 		Capacity
Savings12 		Cost Savings
(US Dollars per
Person-Month):
Low13, High14 		AUROC
(95% CI)11 		Capacity Savings12 Cost Savings
(US Dollars per
Person-Month):
Low13, High14
Average Adherence:
Percent doses taken over past 3 months		 0.64
(0.61, 0.67)		 18.9% $11.05, $18.15 0.60
(0.57, 0.63)		 18.8% $11.94, $19.61
Super Learner:
Clinical		 0.71
(0.69, 0.74)		 15.0% $8.74, $14.36 0.75
(0.72, 0.77)		 13.8% $8.77, $14.42
Super Learner:
Electronic Adherence/Clinical		 0.78
(0.75, 0.80)		 21.8% $12.73, $20.91 0.79
(0.76, 0.81)		 18.0% $11.42, $18.76
Super Learner:
Baseline HIV RNA/Electronic Adherence/Clinical		 0.82
(0.79, 0.84)		 30.6% $17.91, $29.42 0.83
(0.81, 0.85)		 24.6% $15.60, $25.63
Super Learner:
HIV RNA /Electronic Adherence/Clinical		 0.86
(0.84, 0.88)		 40.6% $23.73, $38.99 0.88
(0.86, 0.89)		 34.2% $21.70, $35.65
11

p-values for all pairwise comparisons within a given failure definition <0.01

12

Proportion of tests below cutoff, with cutoff chosen to maintain 95% sensitivity.

13

Unit Cost $90 per visit +$50 per HIV RNA test

14

Unit Cost $140 per visit +$90 per HIV RNA test