Table 2. Adjusted effects of candidate predictors on clinical outcomes (full logistic model and reduced model with variable selection) in all study participants (N = 1207).
| Profound DSS | Recurrent shock | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full model | Reduced model | Full model | Reduced model | |
| Candidate predictors | ||||
| Age [+1 year] | 0.86 (0.80, 0.93) | 0.87 (0.83, 0.92) | 0.90 (0.85, 0.96) | 0.90 (0.86, 0.94) |
| Weight [+5 kgs] | 1.03 (0.93, 1.14) | - | 1.00 (0.92, 1.08) | - |
| Day of illness [+1 day] | 0.79 (0.65, 0.94) | 0.78 (0.65, 0.94) | 0.78 (0.68, 0.91) | 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) |
| Pulse rate [+10 beats/min] | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.13) | 1.07 (1.02, 1.11) | 1.07 (1.02, 1.11) |
| Temperature [+1°C] | 1.58 (1.12, 2.21) | 1.59 (1.12, 2.20) | 1.85 (1.39, 2.48) | 1.85 (1.39, 2.48) |
| Hemorrhage | - | - | ||
| None | 1.00 (reference) | - | 1.00 (reference) | - |
| Skin only | 0.94 (0.67, 1.33) | - | 0.96 (0.73, 1.26) | - |
| Mucosal | 1.22 (0.47, 2.89) | - | 1.02 (0.47, 2.14) | - |
| Abdominal tenderness | 0.98 (0.68, 1.42) | - | 1.05 (0.78, 1.41) | - |
| Liver size [+1 cm] | 0.96 (0.80, 1.16) | - | 1.05 (0.91, 1.22) | - |
| Haematocrit [+1%] | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.12) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.11) | 1.07 (1.03, 1.10) |
| Platelet count [+10,000 cells/mm3] | 1.02 (0.98, 1.06) | - | 1.00 (0.96, 1.03) | - |
| Gender: male | 1.14 (0.75, 1.73) | 1.17 (0.78, 1.77) | 1.42 (1.04, 1.95) | 1.42 (1.04, 1.93) |
| Hemodynamic Index—males | ||||
| Group 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) |
| Group 2 vs. group 1 | 0.82 (0.46, 1.41) | 0.79 (0.45, 1.36) | 0.77 (0.50, 1.16) | 0.77 (0.51, 1.16) |
| Group 3 vs. group 1 | 1.60 (0.70, 3.61) | 1.55 (0.67, 3.49) | 0.65 (0.30, 1.41) | 0.66 (0.30, 1.43) |
| Hemodynamic Index—females | ||||
| Group 1 | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) | 1.00 (reference) |
| Group 2 vs. group 1 | 2.57 (1.59, 4.15) | 2.55 (1.58, 4.12) | 1.86 (1.24, 2.79) | 1.86 (1.24, 2.79) |
| Group 3 vs. group 1 | 3.01 (1.43, 6.36) | 3.06 (1.46, 6.45) | 1.51 (0.75, 3.05) | 1.50 (0.75, 3.03) |
| Performance: internal (temporal) validation | ||||
| AUC | 0.69 (0.73) | 0.69 (0.74) | 0.64 (0.69) | 0.65 (0.71) |
| Calibration-in-the-large | -0.02 (-0.49) | -0.02 (-0.50) | -0.003 (-1.47) | -0.004 (-1.47) |
| Calibration slope | 0.87 (1.13) | 0.92 (1.22) | 0.86 (1.20) | 0.93 (1.34) |
Performance of the associated prediction models (based on repeated ten-fold cross-validation [internal validation] and temporal validation) is shown at the bottom of the table.
DSS: dengue shock syndrome
Effects are summarized as odds ratio (95% confidence interval).
Interaction tests between gender and hemodynamic index were significant for recurrent shock (p = 0.01) and profound DSS (p = 0.01)
All performance measures were corrected for optimism using 10-times 10-fold cross-validations.