TABLE 1.
Ninety-Five Percent Uncertainty Range of the Cohort Distribution of Thyroid Doses Obtained from 5,000 Realizations of Cohort Dose Vectors, Each Comprised of 2,376 Conditional Individual Median Dosesa
| Overall cohort (N = 2,376) | Male (N = 973) | Female (N = 1,403) | Kazakh (N = 1,549) | Russian (N = 827) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External thyroid dose (Gy) | ||||||||||
| Cohort dose | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% |
| Minimum (Gy) | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 3.7E-05 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 |
| Median (Gy) | 2.2E-02 | 4.3E-02 | 2.4E-02 | 4.6E-02 | 2.1E-02 | 4.3E-02 | 2.8E-02 | 5.3E-02 | 1.0E- 02 | 2.5E-02 |
| Mean (Gy) | 4.1E-02 | 6.7E-02 | 4.1E-02 | 6.8E-02 | 4.1E-02 | 6.6E-02 | 4.3E-02 | 7.6E-02 | 3.9E-02 | 6.2E-02 |
| Maximum (Gy) | 3.1E-01 | 8.2E-01 | 3.0E-01 | 8.0E-01 | 3.0E-01 | 7.7E-01 | 3.0E-01 | 8.0E-01 | 3.0E-01 | 7.7E-01 |
| Variance (Gy2) | 2.3E-03 | 7.3E-03 | 2.3E-03 | 7.4E-03 | 2.3E-03 | 7.3E-03 | 1.7E-03 | 5.9E-03 | 2.4E-03 | 7.6E-03 |
| Internal thyroid radiation dose (Gy) | ||||||||||
| Cohort dose | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% |
| Minimum (Gy) | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 3.4E-05 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 |
| Median (Gy) | 1.6E- 02 | 8.6E-02 | 1.5E- 02 | 8.2E-02 | 1.7E- 02 | 9.0E-02 | 2.0E-02 | 1.2E- 01 | 1.4E-02 | 7.9E-02 |
| Mean (Gy) | 4.4E-02 | 1.2E+00 | 4.3E-02 | 1.1E+00 | 4.4E-02 | 1.2E+00 | 5.2E-02 | 1.7E+00 | 4.0E-02 | 1.0E+00 |
| Maximum (Gy) | 4.5E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 3.9E-01 | 2.1E+01 | 4.3E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 4.4E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 4.3E-01 | 3.6E+01 |
| Variance (Gy2) | 3.1E-03 | 1.0E+01 | 3.2E-03 | 8.8E+00 | 3.0E-03 | 1.1E+01 | 3.4E-03 | 1.5E+01 | 2.9E-03 | 9.4E+00 |
| Total thyroid radiation dose (Gy) | ||||||||||
| Cohort dose | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% | 2.50% | 97.50% |
| Minimum (Gy) | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 8.6E-05 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 | 0.0E+00 |
| Median (Gy) | 6.6E-02 | 1.6E- 01 | 6.5E-02 | 1.6E- 01 | 6.6E-02 | 1.6E- 01 | 8.8E-02 | 2.0E-01 | 4.2E-02 | 1.4E-01 |
| Mean (Gy) | 9.5E-02 | 1.2E+00 | 9.4E-02 | 1.2E+00 | 9.5E-02 | 1.3E+00 | 1.1E- 01 | 1.8E+00 | 8.8E-02 | 1.1E+00 |
| Maximum (Gy) | 7.1E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 6.6E-01 | 2.1E+01 | 6.9E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 6.9E-01 | 3.6E+01 | 6.9E-01 | 3.6E+01 |
| Variance (Gy2) | 9.7E-03 | 1.0E+01 | 1.0E- 02 | 8.8E+00 | 9.5E-03 | 1.1E+01 | 8.3E-03 | 1.5E+01 | 9.7E-03 | 9.5E+00 |
Each of 5,000 vectors of 2,376 conditional individual median doses were obtained from 100× resampling of unshared parameters in the inner loop of the 2DMC dose reconstruction model to produce 100 random individual dose estimates per subject, each “conditioned” on a unique fixed set of outer loop parameter values that are shared by cohort subgroups. The set of shared outer loop parameter values was resampled 1× for each successive dose vector and the 100× inner loop resampling was repeated, until 5,000 vectors of conditional individual median doses were produced.