Table 1.
Physicians’ assessments and uncertainty, by vignette
| Vignette | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Good Health n(%) |
Fair Health n(%) |
Poor Health n(%) |
|
| Life Expectancy Estimate | |||
| <2 years | 1(0) | 20(7) | 181(66) |
| 2–5 years | 17(6) | 187 (68) | 90(33) |
| 6–10 years | 127(46) | 66(24) | 5(2) |
| >10 years | 131(47) | 3(1) | 0(0) |
| Confidence in Life Expectancy Estimate | |||
| Extremely Confident | 15(5) | 4(1) | 23(8) |
| Very Confident | 113(41) | 102(37) | 136(49) |
| Neither Confident nor Unconfident | 118(43) | 144(52) | 97(35) |
| Not Very Confident | 26(9) | 24(9) | 18(7) |
| Not at all Confident | 4(1) | 2(1) | 1(0) |
| Potential Benefits of Cancer Screening | |||
| Benefits Clearly Outweigh Downsides | 90 (33) | 23 (8) | 7 (3) |
| Benefits Probably Outweigh Downsides | 121 (44) | 55 (20) | 9 (3) |
| Benefits and Downsides Equal | 42 (15) | 64 (23) | 25 (9) |
| Downsides Probably Outweigh Benefits | 22 (8) | 111 (40) | 108 (39) |
| Downsides Clearly Outweigh Benefits | 1 (0) | 23 (8) | 126 (46) |
| Certainty of Benefits | |||
| Extremely Certain | 32 (12) | 15 (5) | 29 (11) |
| Very Certain | 151 (55) | 128 (47) | 142 (52) |
| Neither Certain nor Uncertain | 85 (31) | 117 (43) | 80 (29) |
| Very Uncertain | 7 (3) | 12 (4) | 18 (7) |
| Extremely Uncertain | 1 (0) | 3 (1) | 6 (2) |
| Best Course of Action | |||
| Strongly Believe Screening is in Patient’s Best Interest | 70 (25) | 21 (8) | 4 (1) |
| Screening is Probably in Patient’s Best Interest | 148 (54) | 55 (20) | 16 (6) |
| Unsure | 42 (15) | 100 (36) | 44 (16) |
| Believe Screening is Probably NOT in Patient’s Best Interest | 15 (5) | 79 (29) | 109 (40) |
| Strongly Believe Screening is NOT in Patient’s Best Interest | 0 (0) | 20 (7) | 102 (37) |