Table 5.
Dynamic Panel Modeling of the Associations of 1-Serving per Day Increases in the Consumption of Beverages Sweetened With Caloric Sweeteners and Low-Calorie Sweeteners With Dietary Purchasing Patterns, Homescan Survey, 2000–2010a
| Outcome at Time t, kilocalories per capita per day | Lagged Endogenous Explanatory Variablesb |
Sargan-Hansen Testc P Value | Arellano-Bond Test of Autocorrelationd |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | LCS Beverages | CS Beverages | ||||
| First Order P Value |
Second Order P Value |
|||||
| Beverage group | ||||||
| Juice, sweetened | 0.73 (0.23)e | −2.28 (2.07) | −1.52 (2.20) | 0.891 | <0.001 | 0.509 |
| Milk and milk drinks, sweetened | −0.07 (0.18) | −0.48 (0.78) | 1.24 (0.94) | 0.500 | 0.064 | <0.001 |
| Milk, plain unsweetened | 0.36 (0.17)e | 1.82 (2.33) | 2.22 (2.57) | 0.438 | <0.001 | 0.516 |
| Coffee/tea, sweetened | −0.44 (0.31) | 0.69 (0.71) | −1.08 (0.98) | 0.755 | 0.924 | 0.006 |
| Coffee/tea, unsweetened | 0.76 (0.17)e | −0.73 (0.65) | 0.40 (0.81) | 0.966 | <0.001 | 0.017 |
| Water and other beverages, unsweetened | −0.24 (0.49) | 0.00 (0.05) | 0.05 (0.05) | 0.970 | 0.282 | 0.292 |
| Alcohol | 0.88 (0.10)e | −1.80 (2.21) | −2.83 (1.98) | 0.453 | <0.001 | 0.731 |
| Food group | ||||||
| Dairy, sweetened | 0.39 (0.20) | 1.76 (1.55) | 0.98 (1.43) | 0.483 | <0.001 | 0.593 |
| Dairy, plain and unsweetened | 0.76 (0.14)e | 0.92 (0.58) | 0.82 (0.53) | 0.045 | <0.001 | 0.944 |
| Fruit, processed and sweetened | −0.21 (0.21) | −0.36 (0.57) | 0.41 (0.56) | 0.874 | 0.122 | 0.003 |
| Plain fruits and vegetables | 0.28 (0.21) | 0.85 (1.53) | 0.27 (1.50) | 0.522 | 0.001 | 0.323 |
| Ready-to-eat cereal, sweetened | 0.05 (0.15) | 8.13 (3.39)e | 2.14 (2.66) | 0.565 | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Grains and breads | 0.81 (0.09)e | −0.40 (3.55) | −1.40 (3.52) | 0.299 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
| Desserts and sweeteners, low-calorie | 0.39 (0.13)e | 1.34 (1.77) | −1.29 (1.23) | 0.085 | <0.001 | 0.581 |
| Desserts and sweeteners, caloric | 0.24 (0.19) | 40.18 (14.04)e | 36.00 (17.30)e | 0.213 | <0.001 | 0.415 |
| Salty snacks | 0.70 (0.27)e | 1.66 (2.74) | 0.04 (2.57) | 0.904 | <0.001 | 0.068 |
| Cheese | 0.45 (0.20)e | 5.21 (2.58)e | 3.92 (2.85) | 0.203 | <0.001 | 0.914 |
| Cooking fats and dressings | 0.89 (0.22)e | −2.22 (7.00) | −7.29 (7.96) | 0.311 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
| Nuts and seeds | 0.53 (0.23)e | 3.10 (3.48) | 2.62 (2.80) | 0.819 | <0.001 | 0.656 |
| Meat, fish, poultry, and eggs | 0.80 (0.08)e | −1.71 (3.15) | −1.55 (2.95) | 0.878 | <0.001 | 0.004 |
| Ready-to-eat mixed, frozen/fast food meals | 0.69 (0.17)e | 6.37 (3.93) | 5.78 (4.78) | 0.724 | <0.001 | 0.042 |
Abbreviations: CS beverages, beverages flavored with caloric sweeteners; LCS beverages, beverages flavored with low-calorie sweeteners.
a Values are expressed as β (standard error) and were obtained from a generalized method of moments 2-step system dynamic panel model with average no. of household grocery trips per year and percentage market sales made up of LCS beverages and CS beverages (specified for the level equation and differenced equation) as the lagged instrumental variables in the first step and the second and third lags of LCS and CS beverage purchases (specified for the differenced equation) as the lagged instrumental variables in the second step. There were 41 instrumental variables in total. The models were adjusted for age, sex, educational level, race/ethnicity, income, and year.
b The first lagged value was used.
c Sargan-Hansen test of overidentifying restrictions. If P > 0.05, the null hypothesis of overidentification indicated that the assumptions made about exogeneity of the instrumental variables were valid.
d Arellano-Bond test of autocorrelation of the time-varying error term in the differenced equation. If P > 0.05, the null hypothesis of no second-order autocorrelation indicates that the second and third lags of our endogenous explanatory variables are valid instrumental variables for the differenced equation.
e P < 0.05.