Fig. 2.

Average number of exits per minute at Victoria LU station on Tuesday, January 17, 2012. The blue curve represents the 1-min-ahead prediction under the natural regime using the tracking model. Given a disruption from 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM between Victoria station and Brixton station in the Victoria line, the blue horizontal line indicates the average expected exit rate given by the tracking model under the natural regime, the red line the averaged observed exit count, and the black line the prediction given by the disruption model (Eq. 5).