Fig. 3.

Reduction in error provided by the model in Eq. 5 compared with baselines (i) natural regime covariate only and (ii) uniform flow probabilities. Dashed lines show the pointwise 95% confidence intervals on the error reduction. Each point considers test cases with minimum number of tap-outs per minute indicated in the horizontal axis. The number in brackets indicates the number of test cases. (A) Relative errors for line segment events. The absolute error of tracking model for the line segment disruption varies from 3.0 (all stations) to 12.2 (stations with 85 tap-outs per minute or more) persons per minute. (B) Relative errors for station events. The absolute error varies from 3.5 (all stations) to 10.5 (stations with 75 tap-outs per minute or more) persons per minute.