Table 2.
Posterior medians (PM) and 95% credible intervals (CI) for hazard ratio parameters from (i) univariate Bayesian analyses of readmission and death, separately, and (ii) joint analyses based on the proposed Bayesian framework for semi-competing risks data. Results are based on setting the Poisson rate parameters α and αg, g ∈ {1,2,3}, to 20 for all MVN-ICAR specifications of baseline hazard functions.
| Univariate data analyses | Semi-competing risks data analysis | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markov model for h3(·) | semi-Markov model for h3(·) | ||||||||
| Readmission | Death | Readmission | Death prior to readmission |
Death after readmission |
Readmission | Death prior to readmission |
Death after readmission |
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|
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| PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | PM (95% CI) | ||
| Comorbidity | 0-1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| indexa | 2-3 | 1.04 (0.97, 1.12) | 1.00 (0.95, 1.05) | 1.03 (0.96, 1.12) | 0.99 (0.93, 1.05) | 0.99 (0.89, 1.10) | 1.03 (0.96, 1.11) | 0.99 (0.92, 1.06) | 0.98 (0.89, 1.11) |
| ≥ 4 | 1.24 (1.15, 1.35) | 1.13 (1.07, 1.19) | 1.26 (1.16, 1.37) | 1.15 (1.07, 1.23) | 1.07 (0.95, 1.21) | 1.26 (1.16, 1.38) | 1.16 (1.08, 1.25) | 1.08 (0.96, 1.23) | |
| Race | White | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Non-white | 1.27 (1.17, 1.37) | 0.94 (0.89, 1.00) | 1.27 (1.17, 1.39) | 0.86 (0.79, 0.93) | 1.13 (1.01, 1.28) | 1.28 (1.17, 1.40) | 0.86 (0.79, 0.93) | 1.15 (1.02, 1.28) | |
| Gender | Female | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Male | 1.06 (1.00, 1.13) | 1.24 (1.19, 1.30) | 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) | 1.30 (1.23, 1.38) | 1.22 (1.12, 1.34) | 1.11 (1.05, 1.19) | 1.32 (1.25, 1.40) | 1.25 (1.14, 1.37) | |
| Ageb | 0.88 (0.86, 0.91) | 1.05 (1.03, 1.07) | 0.87 (0.84, 0.90) | 1.07 (1.04, 1.10) | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) | 0.87 (0.84, 0.90) | 1.07 (1.04, 1.10) | 1.08 (1.03, 1.13) | |
| Care after | Home | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| discharge | Home care | 1.17 (1.09, 1.26) | 1.38 (1.29, 1.48) | 1.21 (1.12, 1.31) | 1.53 (1.39, 1.69) | 1.23 (1.10, 1.38) | 1.24 (1.14, 1.34) | 1.57 (1.43, 1.74) | 1.28 (1.14, 1.43) |
| ICF/SNF | 0.76 (0.69, 0.83) | 2.39 (2.25, 2.54) | 0.82 (0.75, 0.91) | 3.46 (3.19, 3.79) | 1.76 (1.54, 2.01) | 0.85 (0.77, 0.94) | 3.61 (3.31, 3.97) | 1.84 (1.60, 2.11) | |
| Hospice | 0.15 (0.12, 0.17) | 5.11 (4.85, 5.39) | 0.18 (0.15, 0.21) | 8.96 (8.25, 9.86) | 3.08 (2.38, 3.99) | 0.19 (0.15, 0.22) | 9.69 (8.82, 10.76) | 3.35 (2.59, 4.28) | |
| Hospital stay | ≤ 2 weeks | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| > 2 weeks | 1.21 (1.09, 1.34) | 1.05 (0.98, 1.12) | 1.25 (1.12, 1.39) | 1.09 (1.00, 1.20) | 0.89 (0.76, 1.05) | 1.27 (1.13, 1.42) | 1.11 (1.00, 1.22) | 0.91 (0.78, 1.06) | |
a
Number of diagnosis codes given during the initial hospitalization from a list of 27 disease/disorders related to prognosis following hospital discharge.
b
Standardized so that a one-unit contrast corresponds to a difference of 5 years.