Table S3.
Key variables with varying value in the probability sensitivity analysis
| Variable | Base-case | Standard deviation | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR of gaining ≥10 letters (ranibizumab PRN vs aflibercept 2q8) | 1.59 | 1.21 | Log normal |
| Transition probabilities | |||
| ranibizumab PRN – Yr 1–3 | Varies by state | Varies by state | Gamma |
| Annual worsening after Yr 3 | 4.5% | alpha =5.5/beta =1 | Gamma |
| No change after Yr 3 | 92% | alpha =92/beta =1 | Gamma |
| Annual improvement after Yr 3 | 3.5% | alpha =4.5/beta =1 | Gamma |
| Regression model for BSE utility | |||
| Constant | 0.86 | 0.039 | Normal |
| LogMAR coefficient | −0.368 | 0.045 | Normal |
| Age coefficient | −0.001 | 0.002 | Normal |
| Ranibizumab PRN injections | |||
| Year 1 | 7.0 | 0.26 | Normal |
| Year 2 | 3.9 | 0.38 | Normal |
| Year 3 | 2.9 | 0.32 | Normal |
| Aflibercept 2q8 injections | |||
| Year 1 | 8.54 | 0.11 | Normal |
| Year 2 | 5.10 | 0.38 | Normal |
| Year 3 | 5.10 | 0.32 | Normal |
| Costs of visual impairment | |||
| BCVA <35 letters | £17,326 | £3,465 | Gamma |
Note: The transition probabilities in the probability sensitivity analysis are normalized, so that they equal 100%.
Abbreviations: OR, odds ratio; PRN, pro re nata; 2q8, 2 mg every 8 weeks after five initial monthly doses; BSE, better-seeing eye; LogMar, logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution.