Table 1.

Probability words as quantitative subjective probability judgments

Term	Probability range
Virtually certain	>0.99
Very likely	0.90–0.99
Likely	0.66–0.90
Medium likelihood	0.33–0.66
Unlikely	0.10–0.33
Very unlikely	0.01–0.10
Exceptionally unlikely	<0.01

Mapping of probability words into quantitative subjective probability judgments, used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment59,65 based on recommendations developed by Moss & Schneider.69