Table 2.

Model of possible excess suicides in 2002 compared to 1991 as a result of increased antidepressant prescribing (assumes findings from paediatric trials apply to adults and additional assumptions listed in text)

	Total	Male	Female
No of extra antidepressant prescriptions issued in England in 2002 compared with 1991 (Department of Health)*	17 386 000	5 795 000	11 591 000
Additional person years exposed to antidepresants in 2002 compared to 1991†	1 381 000	460 000	921 000
Suicide rate in primary care treated depression (based on mean one year follow up)16‡	85/100 000/year	127.5/100 000/year	42.5/100 000/year
No of suicides among people receiving antidepressants§		586	391
No of excess suicides¶		586−(586/1.66)=233	391−(391/1.66)=155

^*Figures for males and females based on assumption that ratio of males:females prescribed antidepressants is 1:2.¹

^†Assumes mean duration of antidepressant prescription is 29 days³¹ and all dispensed prescriptions are taken in their entirety by patients (No of extra prescriptions×29/365).

^‡Assuming ratio of male:female suicide rates among people taking antidepressants is the same as that for general population suicide rates: 3:1.^w1 This is in keeping with the relative risk of suicide of 2.8 in males receiving antidepressants compared with females in Jick et al.¹⁶

^§Additional person years of prescriptions×annual suicide rate.

^¶Assuming relative risk associated with antidepressant prescribing is 1.66 (see table 1).