Figure 1.

Ratios of Predicted to Actual Health Care Expenditures in Risk Adjustment Models for Health Plan Cohorts, by Share of Enrollees With Chronic Mental Health and Chronic Medical Conditionsa

^aHealth plan cohorts were created by simulating enrollment for 100 health plans, each with 50,000 random members. We reassigned a predetermined number of individuals to plans based on the presence of chronic mental health conditions to create four plan risk levels with 25 plans in each: low, moderately low, moderately high, and high morbidity. We used an analogous process to create four plan cohorts by share of enrollees with a chronic medical condition.