Table 3. Fitted regression coefficients of final models of multiple linear regressions of the EMWS Indices.
| Factors | Ischemic Heart Disease | Cerebrovascular Diseases | Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases | Pneumonia | Others | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factors included intentionally | Fitted Regression Coefficients (95% Confidence Intervals) | ||||||||||
| Intercept | 30.02 | (8.95,51.09) | 41.00 | (27.32,54.67) | 123.59 | (89.87,157.31) | -16.43 | (-32.05,-0.81) | 38.23 | (32.16,44.30) | |
| Gender | |||||||||||
| Male | 13.58 | (4.24,22.92) | 11.28 | (3.40,19.16) | 2.92 | (-10.28,16.11) | 12.84 | (6.02,19.66) | 3.05 | (-0.04,6.13) | |
| Female (reference) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Age group | |||||||||||
| 65–74 | -31.41 | (-42.85,-19.97) | -20.98 | (-30.63,-11.32) | -42.98 | (-59.14,-26.82) | -17.40 | (-25.75,-9.04) | -24.92 | (-28.70,-21.14) | |
| 75–84 | -15.91 | (-27.35,-4.48) | -12.75 | (-22.40,-3.10) | -29.68 | (-45.84,-13.51) | -7.20 | (-15.56,1.15) | -14.10 | (-17.88,-10.32) | |
| 85 and above (reference) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Factors selected by stepwise procedure | |||||||||||
| Winter variables | |||||||||||
| Number of Cold Days | 0.75 | (0.19,1.30) | — | — | 1.12 | (0.70,1.54) | 0.68 | (0.44,0.92) | |||
| Number of days with daily atmospheric pressure over 1023.4hPa | 1.40 | (0.50,2.30) | — | — | 1.06 | (0.38,1.74) | — | ||||
| Number of days with daily temperature range over 6.8°C | — | 1.92 | (0.83,3.01) | 3.64 | (1.72,5.56) | — | 0.05 | (-0.52,0.62) # | |||
| Summer variables | |||||||||||
| Number of Very Hot Days | — | — | 2.30 | (0.64,3.96) | — | — | |||||
| Number of days with NET over 26°C | — | — | -1.66 | (-2.70,-0.61) | — | -0.06 | (-0.26,0.14) # | ||||
| Number of days with daily relative humidity over 93% | — | — | -5.93 | (-9.44,-2.42) | 2.30 | (0.67,3.94) | -1.25 | (-2.08,-0.42) | |||
| Number of days with daily temperature range over 6.8°C | — | — | — | 2.34 | (0.29,4.38) | -1.04 | (-2.02,-0.06) | ||||
| Number of days with daily atmospheric pressure below 1002.9hPa | — | — | -2.01 | (-2.96,-1.06) | — | — | |||||
| Trend after controlling demographical and extreme weather factors | |||||||||||
| Year § | -0.09 | (-0.57,0.38) | -0.13 | (-0.57,0.30) | -0.43 | (-1.32,0.47) | 0.15 | (-0.23,0.52) | -0.37 | (-0.58,-0.15) | |
Note: The unit of the fitted coefficients and the 95% CI are percentage points; Only significant extreme weather variables were selected to the final models by stepwise procedure;
- denotes insignificant factors to the EMWS Index for that cause of death;
§ Year = 1 denotes the year 1976, year = 2 denotes the year 1977, and so on;
# These variables became insignificant when calendar year was included in the model;
Multicollinearity was not detected in the final models.