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. 2015 May 21;5:10371. doi: 10.1038/srep10371

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Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited

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Reconstruction of the single-cycle viral yield experiment. The (A) probability density function and (B) cumulative distribution function for our gamma distribution with a shape parameter of 3.5 and our Erlang distribution with a shape parameter of 3, both with a mean of 0.98 days are shown side-by-side for comparison. Prediction of the (C) fraction of infectious cells, , and (D) extracellular viral load, , from the analytical expressions, Eqs. (21, 22). Using a typical model with no eclipse phase (no ) and a previously estimated infectious cell death rate of /d results in an incorrect prediction for the viral load time course. Using this same infectious cell death rate in Eqs.(21, 22) results a much larger fraction of cells infected and appearing much later compared to the model without an eclipse phase, and overestimates the viral load. Adjusting the infectious cell death rate to /d results in fewer infected cells peaking earlier, and agrees well with the experimental viral load.

Inline graphic — Reconstruction of the single-cycle viral yield experiment. The (A) probability density function and (B) cumulative distribution function for our gamma distribution with a shape parameter of 3.5 and our Erlang distribution with a shape parameter of 3, both with a mean of 0.98 days are shown side-by-side for comparison. Prediction of the (C) fraction of infectious cells, , and (D) extracellular viral load, , from the analytical expressions, Eqs. (21, 22). Using a typical model with no eclipse phase (no ) and a previously estimated infectious cell death rate of /d results in an incorrect prediction for the viral load time course. Using this same infectious cell death rate in Eqs.(21, 22) results a much larger fraction of cells infected and appearing much later compared to the model without an eclipse phase, and overestimates the viral load. Adjusting the infectious cell death rate to /d results in fewer infected cells peaking earlier, and agrees well with the experimental viral load.