Fig. 3.

Counterfactual simulation of prevalence by age estimated by varying incidence rates. We project prevalence by age starting with initial prevalence from each country and then apply incidence and survival rates keeping characteristics constant. The HRS scenario uses initial prevalence, incidence, and survival rates from the HRS, with average American characteristics. The SHARE-incidence scenario uses U.S. initial prevalence and survival rates but applies SHARE incidence rates evaluated at average characteristics from the United States. Finally, the SHARE scenario is analogous to the HRS scenario for Europeans. Incidence rates and survival rates are weighted. Aggregate baseline survival rates are also weighted to match period life tables