Table 3.

The results of an evaluation involving 100 simulated influenza outbreaks. Each cell contains a mean value followed in parenthesis by the 95% confidence interval around that mean.

mean fraction of outbreak cases	mean number of days into the outbreak	mean posterior probability P that an outbreak is occurring	mean relative error in estimating the total number of outbreak cases	mean absolute error of estimating the peak day	mean false positive rate relative to P
0.001	17.6 (17.0, 18.3)	0.125 (0.118, 0.132)	0.874 (0.867, 0.881)	13.4 (11.8, 15.0)	0.695 (0.665, 0.726)
0.01	35.8 (34.5, 37.2)	0.363 (0.316, 0.410)	0.649 (0.606, 0.692)	9.3 (8.2, 10.4)	0.283 (0.235, 0.331)
0.064	51.9 (50.0, 53.9)	0.972 (0.947, 0.996)	0.106 (0.084, 0.128)	4.1 (3.4, 4.9)	0.005 (0.00, 0.01)
0.1	56.0 (53.9, 58.1)	0.981 (0.962, >0.999)	0.086 (0.068, 0.104)	3.2 (2.6, 3.9)	0.003 (0.000, 0.009)
0.2	62.8 (60.4, 65.2)	0.996 (0.995, 0.997)	0.069 (0.051, 0.087)	3.6 (2.9, 4.3)	0.00 (0.00, 0.00)
0.5	74.2 (71.3, 77.1)	0.997 (0.996, 0.999)	0.063 (0.051, 0.074)	2.5 (1.9, 3.0)	0.00 (0.00, 0.00)