Table 2.
The Predictive Validity of the DASH, SAPROF, and ERASOR for Desistence From Sexual and Nonsexual Recidivism.
| Type | Domain | AUC | Effect size | 95% CI | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Follow-up (up to 2,741 days) | |||||
| Sexual desistence | DASH-Sexual | .52 | Small | [.35, .70] | ns |
| DASH-General | .64 | Medium | [.44, .84] | ns | |
| DASH-Total | .60 | Small | [.45, .75] | ns | |
| SAPROF-Internal | .45 | Small | [.19, .70] | ns | |
| SAPROF-Motivational | .51 | Small | [.30, .71] | ns | |
| SAPROF-External | .52 | Small | [.34, .70] | ns | |
| SAPROF-Total | .48 | Small | [.28, .69] | ns | |
| Nonsexual desistence | DASH-Sexual | .63 | Small | [.50, .76] | .049 |
| DASH-General | .62 | Small | [.49, .75] | ns | |
| DASH-Total | .63 | Small | [.50, .76] | .048 | |
| SAPROF-Internal | .58 | Small | [.45, .71] | ns | |
| SAPROF-Motivational | .63 | Small | [.50, .76] | ns | |
| SAPROF-External | .52 | Small | [.39, .65] | ns | |
| SAPROF-Total | .62 | Small | [.49, .75] | ns | |
| Sexual recidivism | ERASOR–Sexual interests | .60 | Small | [.40, .81] | ns |
| ERASOR-Historical | .79 | Large | [.67, .91] | .011 | |
| ERASOR-Psychological | .52 | Small | [.35, .69] | ns | |
| ERASOR-Family | .42 | Small | [.23, .62] | ns | |
| ERASOR-Total | .70 | Large | [.53, .87] | ns | |
| Nonsexual recidivism | ERASOR–Sexual interests | .67 | Medium | [.54, .80] | .011 |
| ERASOR-Historical | .56 | Small | [.44, .69] | ns | |
| ERASOR-Psychological | .56 | Small | [.42, .69] | ns | |
| ERASOR-Family | .65 | Medium | [.53, .76] | .029 | |
| ERASOR-Total | .66 | Medium | [.53, .78] | .019 | |
Note. DASH = Desistence for Adolescents Who Sexually Harm; SAPROF = Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for Violence Risk; ERASOR = Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism; AUC = Area Under Curve; ns = nonsignificant.