Table 3. Parameter Estimates for Ebola Zaire excluding the ongoing outbreak in West Africa.
| Parameter | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Med=median; s.d.=standard deviation. |
|
| Incubation Period Distribution (range of central estimates, (range)) * | 5.3–12.7 (1–21) days |
| Serial interval Distribution (range of mean estimates) | 10–16.1 days |
| Khan et al. (mean) † 5 | 14 days‡ |
| Muyembe & Kipasa (approximation) † 70 | 10 days ‡ |
| Dowell et al. (median, (range)) † 39 | Med=17 days (9–25) |
| White & Pagano (mean, (IQR)) 60 | 5.82 days (5.43–7.60) |
| Maganga et al. (median, (range), mean, s.d.) 49 | Med=16 days (3–27), 16.1 days, 4.4 |
| R 0 (range of estimates) | 1.36–4.71 |
| Chowell et al. (estimate, s.d.) 44 | 1.83, 0.06 |
| Ferrari et al. (estimate, (95% CI) 58 | 3.65 (3.05, 4.33) |
| Legrand et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 59 | 2.7 (1.9, 2.8) |
| Lekone & Finkenstädt (estimate, s.d.) 42 | 1.36, 0.13 |
| Ndanguza et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 35 | 2.22 (1.90, 2.73) |
| White & Pagano (estimate, (IQR)) 60 | 1.93 (1.74–2.78) |
| Camacho et al. (estimate, (95% CI)) 38 | 4.71 (3.92, 5.66) |
| R t (range of estimates) | 0.84–1.29 |
| Maganga et al. (estimate, (95% CI) 49) | 1.29 (−4.72, 7.29)0.84 (−0.38, 2.06) |
|
Delay Distributions (days)
|
|
| Infectious period |
|
| Chowell et al. (mean, s.d.) 44 | 5.61,0.19 |
| Symptom onset to… | |
| … hospitalization (range of mean and median estimates) | 4–5; Med=3–4 |
| Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 | 5, Med=4 (0–19), n=219 |
| Rowe et al. (mean, s.d., median, (range)) 20 | 4, 3.3, Med=3 (0–14) |
| Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 | Med=3.00 (2.81, 3.20) |
| … death (range of mean estimates) | 6–10.1 |
| Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 | Med=7.49 (7.30, 7.69) |
| Bwaka et al. (mean, (range), n) 37 | 10.1 (3–21), n=86 |
| Dowell et al. (median) 39 | Med=10 |
| Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 | 9.6, Med=9 (0–34), n=224 |
| Nkoghe et al. (mean, (range), n) 25 | 6.2 (3–13), n=12 |
| Med=6 (<15 years old) | |
| Med=9 (15–29 years old) | |
| Sadek et al. (median, n) 50 | Med=10 (30–44 years old) |
| Med=8 (45–59 years old) | |
| Med=9.5 (>59 years old), overall n=226 | |
| Georges et al. (range) 6 | 12–18 |
| Maganga et al. (median, (range), mean, s.d.) 49 | 11 (1–30), 11.3, 6.8 |
| … recovery | 10 |
| Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 | 10.00 (9.80, 10.19) |
| Hospitalization to… | |
| … discharge | 17 |
| Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 | 17, Med=14 (0–56), n=34 |
| … death | 4.6 |
| Khan et al. (mean, median, (range), n) 5 | 4.6, Med=4 (0–20), n=185 |
| Death to burial | |
| Camacho et al. (median, (95% CI)) 38 | Med=0.99 (0.8, 1.18) |
| Overall Case Fatality Rate (range of estimates)α | 0.69–0.88 |
| International Commission (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 2 | 0.88, n=318, 1976 |
| Muyembe & Kipasa (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 70 | 0.74, n=136, 1995 |
| Ndambi et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 43 | 0.78, n=23, 1995 |
| Khan et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 5 | 0.81, n=315, 1995 |
| Overall: 0.807, n=310, 1995 | |
| 0.778 (<15 years old) | |
| Sadek et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 50 | 0.69 (15–29 years old) |
| 0.796 (30–44 years old) | |
| 0.89 (45–59 years old) | |
| 0.957 (>59 years old) | |
| Chowell et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 44 | 0.81, n=315, 1995 |
| Nkoghe et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 25 | 0.83, n=12, 2005 |
| Camacho et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 38 | 0.88, n=262, 1976 |
| Maganga et al. (estimate, n, year of outbreak) 49 | 0.74, n=69, 2014 |
*See Fig. 1 for individual estimates; extreme outlier estimate from Ndanguza et al. 35 not included.
†generation time estimated as serial interval.
‡No methodology provided.
α*See Fig. 2 for CFR estimates.