Figure 1.

The estimated proportion of ESRD events captured (PCF) among a given proportion of subjects at highest estimated risk of ESRD (PNF) for models 1–4 at 1-, 3-, and 5-year time frames. Model 2 outperformed model 1, especially at 3- and 5-year time frames, with models 3 and 4 providing modest improvement over model 2. The performances of all models were highest for the 1-year time frame and declined over time. On the basis of model 2, an estimated 91% (97%) of events occurring within 1 year were captured in 10% (20%) of subjects at highest estimated risk of ESRD; those values decreased to 83% (91%) and 74% (86%) for 3- and 5-year time frames, respectively.