Table 4.

Estimates (SEMs) of prediction performance measures for models 1–4 on the basis of the full cohort

Time frame/Measure	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4
Year 1
AUC	0.94 (0.02)	0.97 (0.01)	0.96 (0.01)	0.97 (0.01)
PE(×10)	0.10 (<0.01)	0.09 (0.01)	0.09 (0.01)	0.09 (0.01)
PCF(0.1)	0.87 (0.03)	0.91 (0.03)	0.89 (0.03)	0.90 (0.03)
PCF(0.2)	0.92 (0.03)	0.97 (0.02)	0.95 (0.02)	0.98 (0.02)
PNF(0.8)	0.06 (0.04)	0.05 (0.02)	0.05 (0.02)	0.04 (0.02)
PNF(0.9)	0.14 (0.09)	0.09 (0.05)	0.11 (0.04)	0.10 (0.04)
Year 3
AUC	0.89 (0.01)	0.94 (0.01)	0.94 (0.01)	0.95 (0.01)
PE(×10)	0.26 (0.01)	0.23 (0.02)	0.22 (0.03)	0.21 (0.03)
PCF(0.1)	0.69 (0.02)	0.83 (0.02)	0.82 (0.02)	0.86 (0.02)
PCF(0.2)	0.83 (0.02)	0.91 (0.02)	0.92 (0.02)	0.93 (0.02)
PNF(0.8)	0.18 (0.04)	0.08 (0.02)	0.09 (0.02)	0.08 (0.01)
PNF(0.9)	0.35 (0.05)	0.17 (0.04)	0.18 (0.04)	0.14 (0.04)
Year 5
AUC	0.85 (0.01)	0.92 (0.01)	0.93 (0.01)	0.94 (0.01)
PE(×10)	0.46 (0.03)	0.40 (0.04)	0.39 (0.05)	0.38 (0.05)
PCF(0.1)	0.57 (0.02)	0.74 (0.02)	0.76 (0.02)	0.77 (0.02)
PCF(0.2)	0.74 (0.02)	0.86 (0.02)	0.87 (0.02)	0.89 (0.02)
PNF(0.8)	0.27 (0.03)	0.13 (0.02)	0.13 (0.02)	0.12 (0.02)
PNF(0.9)	0.51 (0.04)	0.24 (0.04)	0.23 (0.04)	0.21 (0.03)

Model 1: adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and eGFR. Model 2: model 1 covariates plus dipstick proteinuria and an interaction between eGFR and dipstick proteinuria. Model 3: model 2 covariates plus health insurance coverage and comorbidities (diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, substance abuse, and chronic viral disease). Model 4: model 3 covariates plus additional laboratory variables (serum albumin, calcium, hemoglobin, and cholesterol). AUC, area under the ROC curve; PE (×10), prediction error multiplied by a factor of 10.