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. 2015 May 28;11(5):e1004096. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004096

Table 1. Team methods, parameter and prediction errors, and overall scores.

Team Optimization method Cost function Reduction strategy Estimation problem Parameter error Prediction error Score
Crux Derivative-based MLE None Artificial 2.60×10−19 0.052 38.1
New Dream N/R N/R N/R Artificial 1.39×10−6 0.023 11.6
ICM Poland Derivative-based Log ratio (Eq 1) None Artificial 1.75×10−6 0.028 9.35
Alucinatori Derivative-based Log ratio (Eq 1) None Artificial 1.14×10−3 0.041 1.84×10−4
Whole-Sale Modelers Differential evolution Least squares (Eq 2) Principal components True 3.61×10−3 0.111 1.40×10−4
CU N/R N/R Model reduction True 3.56×10−3 0.688 6.71×10−5
Team 9 N/R N/R N/R True 3.56×10−3 0.711 6.61×10−5
Hurricane N/R N/R N/R True 8.87×10−3 0.689 2.96×10−5
DBI-Guesstimators N/R N/R N/R True 8.87×10−3 0.689 2.96×10−5
Uniandes N/R N/R N/R True

“Estimation problem” column indicates which teams used the parameter error data. Teams are listed by overall score in descending order. Team Uniandes did not submit a solution and therefore was not scored. Not reported (N/R) indicates teams that did not report their approach.