Table 1.

The Faces of Unrealistic Optimism

Type of Individual Risk Estimate	Level of Analysis
	Individual	Group
Absolute Risk	Unrealistic Absolute Optimism - Individual An individual gives a personal absolute risk estimate that is less than the absolute risk indicated by an appropriate, individual-level objective standard (e.g., a woman says her risk is 20% but a risk calculator says that it is 30%).	Unrealistic Absolute Optimism - Group Individuals give personal, absolute risk estimates. The average of these estimates is less than the absolute risk of an appropriate group-level objective standard (e.g., the average of the groups’ personal estimates is 20%, but the base rate for this group is 30%).
Comparative Risk	Unrealistic Comparative Optimism - Individual An individual gives a comparative risk estimate that is lower than the estimate indicated by an appropriate, individual-level comparative risk standard (e.g., a woman says her risk is below average but a risk calculator says that it is above average).	Unrealistic Comparative Optimism - Group Individuals give estimates that compare their risk (directly or indirectly) with that of a relevant comparison group. The average of these estimates is less than the comparison group (e.g., on average, students at a college say that their risk of developing drinking problems is less than the average risk at their college).