Table 4.
Logit Model (Mean Marginal Effects)
Dependent variable: indicator for being in the top decile of expenditures in each year, based on 2003 characteristics (All Sample)
| VARIABLES | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 0.00519*** (0.000132) |
0.00504*** (0.000147) |
0.00484*** (0.000145) |
0.00451*** (0.000132) |
0.00435*** (0.000163) |
| Age Squared | −3.57e-05*** (1.95e-06) |
−3.13e-05*** (2.10e-06) |
−2.77e-05*** (1.88e-06) |
−2.27e-05*** (1.68e-06) |
−1.92e-05*** (1.99e-06) |
| Gender (Male) | −0.0326*** (0.000945) |
−0.0299*** (0.000866) |
−0.0277*** (0.000742) |
−0.0244*** (0.00102) |
−0.0226*** (0.000794) |
| Region (base group West) | |||||
| Northeast | 0.00543 (0.00337) |
0.00592* (0.00318) |
0.00639** (0.00284) |
0.00640** (0.00307) |
0.00630* (0.00328) |
| North Central | 0.0117*** (0.00277) |
0.0111*** (0.00274) |
0.0111*** (0.00268) |
0.0103*** (0.00268) |
0.00801*** (0.00252) |
| South | 0.0215*** (0.00214) |
0.0174*** (0.00194) |
0.0166*** (0.00219) |
0.0155*** (0.00222) |
0.0150*** (0.00216) |
| Urban Area | −0.00853*** (0.00144) |
−0.00779*** (0.00152) |
−0.00705*** (0.00152) |
−0.00775*** (0.00135) |
−0.00713*** (0.00123) |
| Benefit Plan (base group PPO) | |||||
| HMO | −0.0236*** (0.00360) |
−0.0230*** (0.00397) |
−0.0193*** (0.00416) |
−0.0157*** (0.00345) |
−0.0127*** (0.00296) |
| POS | −0.0156*** (0.00250) |
−0.0113*** (0.00201) |
−0.00627*** (0.00191) |
−0.00343** (0.00168) |
−0.00181 (0.00190) |
| Other | −0.00815*** (0.00167) |
−0.00801*** (0.00175) |
−0.00535*** (0.00181) |
−0.00359** (0.00160) |
−0.00200 (0.00146) |
| Median HH income at zip code | 0.0868** (0.0423) |
0.101** (0.0424) |
0.0613 (0.0396) |
0.0463 (0.0397) |
0.0255 (0.0414) |
| Employee Classification: Union | 0.00759*** (0.00144) |
0.00745*** (0.00138) |
0.00707*** (0.00138) |
0.00546*** (0.00174) |
0.00550*** (0.00167) |
| Employment Status (base group: Active Full Time) | |||||
| Early Retiree | 0.0108*** (0.00107) |
0.00957*** (0.00126) |
0.00577*** (0.00101) |
0.00546*** (0.000899) |
0.00413*** (0.000874) |
| Other | 0.0145*** (0.00199) |
0.0143*** (0.00202) |
0.0152*** (0.00225) |
0.0126*** (0.00226) |
0.0126*** (0.00238) |
| Trauma occurred | 0.0389*** (0.00164) |
0.0344*** (0.00197) |
0.0345*** (0.00176) |
0.0309*** (0.00199) |
0.0341*** (0.00173) |
| Comorbidities | |||||
| Myocardial Infarction | 0.0896*** (0.00288) |
0.0716*** (0.00288) |
0.0651*** (0.00230) |
0.0598*** (0.00269) |
0.0529*** (0.00270) |
| Congestive heart failure | 0.0913*** (0.00393) |
0.0853*** (0.00333) |
0.0815*** (0.00296) |
0.0774*** (0.00326) |
0.0760*** (0.00296) |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 0.0773*** (0.00234) |
0.0645*** (0.00290) |
0.0636*** (0.00273) |
0.0597*** (0.00241) |
0.0590*** (0.00256) |
| Dementia | −0.0924*** (0.00914) |
−0.107*** (0.00852) |
−0.0913*** (0.00655) |
−0.0887*** (0.00669) |
−0.0799*** (0.00791) |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 0.0752*** (0.00239) |
0.0655*** (0.00216) |
0.0615*** (0.00168) |
0.0565*** (0.00209) |
0.0545*** (0.00209) |
| Chronic pulmonary disease | 0.0647*** (0.00151) |
0.0617*** (0.00148) |
0.0599*** (0.00139) |
0.0581*** (0.00150) |
0.0550*** (0.00144) |
| Rheumatologic disease or connective tissue disease | 0.127*** (0.00307) |
0.127*** (0.00293) |
0.122*** (0.00315) |
0.123*** (0.00310) |
0.121*** (0.00355) |
| Peptic Ulcer disease | 0.0693*** (0.00279) |
0.0671*** (0.00361) |
0.0602*** (0.00239) |
0.0562*** (0.00322) |
0.0563*** (0.00313) |
| Mild/Moderate/Severe liver disease | 0.0998*** (0.00427) |
0.0846*** (0.00420) |
0.0848*** (0.00353) |
0.0799*** (0.00418) |
0.0790*** (0.00390) |
| Moderate or severe renal disease | 0.138*** (0.00591) |
0.136*** (0.00538) |
0.141*** (0.00603) |
0.137*** (0.00687) |
0.135*** (0.00627) |
| Diabetes | 0.0789*** (0.00231) |
0.0788*** (0.00259) |
0.0790*** (0.00236) |
0.0781*** (0.00238) |
0.0767*** (0.00226) |
| Any tumor (Other Malignancy) | 0.0795*** (0.00277) |
0.0598*** (0.00222) |
0.0547*** (0.00193) |
0.0515*** (0.00176) |
0.0475*** (0.00179) |
| Metastatic solid tumor | 0.102*** (0.00303) |
0.0763*** (0.00369) |
0.0667*** (0.00476) |
0.0613*** (0.00406) |
0.0576*** (0.00299) |
| Diabetes + complications | 0.0759*** (0.00284) |
0.0709*** (0.00232) |
0.0749*** (0.00224) |
0.0725*** (0.00212) |
0.0679*** (0.00254) |
| AIDS | 0.287*** (0.0121) |
0.292*** (0.0110) |
0.291*** (0.0126) |
0.293*** (0.0132) |
0.297*** (0.0133) |
| PDG Category 1=Present | |||||
| Organic Mental Disorders / Other Psychotic Disorders (NEC, NOS) | 0.0795*** (0.00321) |
0.0745*** (0.00298) |
0.0670*** (0.00293) |
0.0645*** (0.00386) |
0.0592*** (0.00318) |
| Alcohol Use Disorders | 0.0161*** (0.00363) |
0.00582* (0.00340) |
0.00939** (0.00418) |
0.0150*** (0.00360) |
0.0175*** (0.00324) |
| Opioid and Other Substance Use Disorders | 0.0360*** (0.00208) |
0.0311*** (0.00232) |
0.0326*** (0.00210) |
0.0313*** (0.00145) |
0.0325*** (0.00145) |
| Schizophrenia Disorders | 0.0900*** (0.00749) |
0.0824*** (0.00644) |
0.0740*** (0.00673) |
0.0695*** (0.00696) |
0.0699*** (0.00736) |
| Bipolar Disorders | 0.0978*** (0.00311) |
0.0933*** (0.00316) |
0.0915*** (0.00300) |
0.0885*** (0.00239) |
0.0864*** (0.00255) |
| Major Depressions | 0.0761*** (0.00130) |
0.0694*** (0.00116) |
0.0651*** (0.00119) |
0.0627*** (0.00154) |
0.0597*** (0.00129) |
| Other Specific & Atypical Affective Disorders | 0.0505*** (0.00234) |
0.0458*** (0.00193) |
0.0455*** (0.00205) |
0.0428*** (0.00154) |
0.0380*** (0.00183) |
| Post Traumatic Stress Disorders | 0.0464*** (0.00353) |
0.0440*** (0.00357) |
0.0412*** (0.00415) |
0.0381*** (0.00365) |
0.0336*** (0.00400) |
| Anxiety Disorders (NOS) | 0.0403*** (0.00145) |
0.0370*** (0.00140) |
0.0344*** (0.00167) |
0.0324*** (0.00126) |
0.0325*** (0.00134) |
| Personality, Impulse Control, Adjustment, and Other Mental Disorders | 0.0465*** (0.000978) |
0.0423*** (0.00119) |
0.0413*** (0.000981) |
0.0393*** (0.00144) |
0.0385*** (0.00110) |
| Observations Pseudo R-squared |
2,465,152 0.132 |
2,465,152 0.122 |
2,465,152 0.117 |
2,465,152 0.111 |
2,465,152 0.107 |
Standard errors in parentheses
***
p<0.01,
**
p<0.05,
*
p<0.1