Table 1.
Sources of clinical and economic parameters of the model
| Event/state/parameter in the model | Baseline event probabilities per cycle | Treatment efficacy: relative reduction in event risks by individual treatment |
Acute event or quarterly management cost (£) |
Utilities |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspirin | ACEI | Statin | Polypill | Acute | Chronic | Acute | Chronic | ||
| Mean (SE) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (SE) | Mean (SE) | Mean (SE) | Mean (SE) | ||
| Receiving secondary prevention | 26.51 (5.30)*a | 0.760 (0.152)c | 0.836 (0.167)c | ||||||
| CV Death | 0.00339 (0.0007)e | 0.87 (0.76 to 0.99)f | 0.74 (0.63 to 0.87)i | 0.75 (0.68 to 0.83)e | 3000 (600)† | 0 | |||
| ACS, non-fatal | 0.00474 (0.0009)e | 0.71 (0.60 to 0.83)h | 0.80 (0.70 to 0.91)i | 0.69 | 1957 (586)a | 205 (41)*a | 0.760 (0.152)c | 0.836 (0.167)c | |
| Stroke, non-fatal | 0.00185 (0.0004)e | 0.74 (0.54 to 1.01)h | 0.71 (0.56 to 0.89)i | 0.72 (0.53 to 0.97)e | 4418 (2100)a | 760 (152)b | 0.629 (0.126)c | 0.692 (0.138)c | |
| Revascularisation, unplanned | 0.00750 (0.0015)e | 0.71 (0.6 to 0.83)h | 0.87 (0.78 to 0.97)i | 0.77 (0.69 to 0.91)e | 4532 (1404)a | 0.780 (0.003)d | |||
| CHF with hospitalisation, non-fatal | 0.00154 (0.0003)g | 1 (1 to 1) | 0.87 (0.68 to 1.11)i | 0.85 (0.63 to 1.14)j | 3595 (1010)a | 205 (41)*a | 0.629 (0.003)d | 0.800 (0.160)f | |
| Cost per month (£) | £0.90k | £1.68k | £1.73k | £10.39l | |||||
*Based on the assumption of 2 cardiologist visits per year at 131 GBP per visit. Laboratory or monitoring costs were not included.
†Assumed cost of death: a, NHS reference costs 2012–2013;41 b, Economic burden of stroke in England study, prepared for the Division of Health and Social Care Research;42 c, Ara et al;32 d, Taylor et al;43 e, Ward et al;44 f, Choudhry et al;45 g, Saha et al;46 h, Baigent et al;47 i, HOPE FDA Briefing;48 j, Vale et al;49 k, BNF;50 l, Based on the cost of Spanish ex-factory price Trinomia.
ACS, acute coronary syndrome; ATC, Antithrombotic Trialists Collaboration; CHD, congestive heart disease; CHF, congestive heart failure; CV, cardiovascular; FDA, United States Food and Drug Administration; GBP, British Pound; HOPE, Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation; NHS, National Health Service.