Table 3.
Probabilistic sensitivity analyses for alternative scenarios, incremental costs and QALYs
| Scenario | Cost (£) | Lower limit of cost (£) |
Upper limit of cost (£) |
QALYs | Lower limit of QALYs |
Upper limit of QALYs |
ICERs (£/QALY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 242 341 | 223 259 | 375 140 | 29.54 | −24.47 | 79.32 | 8205 |
| Adherence to 3, 2, 1 or 0 monocomponents | 386 592 | 150 082 | 489 038 | 18.04 | −3.03 | 66.17 | 21 430 |
| Lifetime horizon | 283 716 | 100 679 | 393 137 | 53.77 | −35.06 | 132.95 | 5276 |
| No drug cost for non-adherents | 244 446 | 127 215 | 321 424 | 29.54 | −22.97 | 81.10 | 8275 |
| Polypill price double of its monocomponents | 109 674 | −41 740 | 193 150 | 29.54 | −24.40 | 78.06 | 3713 |
| Price parity with sum of its monocomponents | −219 106 | −363 682 | −133 191 | 29.54 | −21.26 | 80.11 | Polypill dominates |
| Adherence declines indefinitely for the polypill and monocomponents | 53 762 | −147 709 | 242 947 | 53.03 | −0.23 | 113.99 | 1013 |
| Polypill adherence wanes until equalling monocomponent adherence | 321 054 | 184 940 | 493 224 | 21.16 | −11.83 | 55.90 | 15 171 |
| Adherence data from Kanyini GAP | 208 900 | 136 441 | 274 313 | 34.87 | 0.38 | 66.70 | 5991 |
ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years.